A Seven-Bid League?

Remember when nine bids looked certain and people wondered if the league might be able to get 10? Well, ESPN's latest Bracketology has the Big East with seven bids -- Cincinnati and Providence both on the "First Four Out" list and Notre Dame and Georgetown justifiably not mentioned at all.

I'm thinking Cincinnati can get in with a win at Syracuse tomorrow and Providence can get in with a win at Villanova on Thursday, but the latter is going to be tough, because Nova is still motivated to grab one of those top four seeds in the conference tournament.

That's why my hopes for a Hoya upset this afternoon are minimal. I foresee something like the Louisville game from earlier this week -- a game in which Georgetown was totally outclassed by a far superior opponent and never had a chance. But I guess you never know. Right? RIGHT?????

Elsewhere on today's schedule, UConn must take care of business at home against Notre Dame. (If they do, they secure one of those top four seeds and a two-day bye at the Garden.) Pitt must take care of business at Seton Hall (so as not to fall too far from its short-lived No. 1 ranking). And St. John's must take care of its business at DePaul. The Blue Demons put a scare into Villanova the other night, may be playing well (for them) right now, and NOBODY wants to be the first Big East team to lose to DePaul this year. Not so close to the end...

Providence 81, Pitt 73 (Tuesday night)

Yeah, getting to this real late, for reasons outlined in my baseball blog (if you're into that sort of thing). But what kind of year is RCR having with predictions? Just when we say we're through with Providence, they go out and knock off the No. 1 team in the country.

Now you have to think the Friars have a shot at the Dance, right? Assuming they beat Rutgers and lose at Villanova, they're 18-12 overall and 10-8 in the conference going into the Big East tournament (where they're now quite likely to have a bye into the second round). Win one game in the Big East tournament, and you're 19-13, and the committee has to take a look at wins over Pitt and Syracuse.

Will it be enough? I say probably not. The committee has a history of screwing Providence, and the out-of-conference schedule was weak. But they'll be in the discussion. And if they get hot and win TWO Big East tournament games and make the semifinals? Jeez.

I say, if the Friars can upset Villanova next week in Philly, they get in. I just don't think they can do that.

Pitt now becomes the team that has to worry about getting passed by Villanova for that critical No. 4 seed in the conference tournament. If they lose one of their remaining three games (at Seton Hall/Marquette/UConn) and Villanova wins out, Villanova catches them. And Villanova has the tiebreaker, as a result of their 67-57 win on Jan. 28.

See? This Big East season did turn out to be exciting. It's just that Georgetown wasn't a part of it.

Watching UConn-Marquette now. Will be back, as you know.

ESPN's Bracketology -- Conference down to 7 bids

Remember those halcyon days of early January, when it looked like any one of nine teams could win the conference, everybody figured on nine NCAA tournament bids and wondered if somebody like a Providence or a Cincinnati could sneak in and make it 10?

Yeah. Hasn't worked out that way.

Right now, it looks like there are four teams capable of winning the conference title -- maybe five, if Villanova stays hot. And in the latest Joe Lunardi Bracketology breakdown on ESPN.com, the Big East is a seven-bid league, one bid behind the ACC, which has eight teams in the projected NCAA tournament field:

*Connecticut and Pitt have #1 seeds.

*Louisville has a #2 seed.

*Marquette has a #3 seed.

*Villanova has a #4 seed.

*Syracuse has a #7 seed (even though their only decent wins are Memphis and West Virginia, they benefit from their relatively easy conference schedule and their embarrassingly easy out-of-conference schedule, but we're not bitter or anything...)

*West Virginia has a #8 seed.

And that's it, folks. Lunardi lists Cincinnati and (sniff) Georgetown on his "First Four Out" list, which means either or both could find their way into the field with strong finishes. And he lists Providence on his "Next Four Out" list, which means the Friars could get in with a monster finish (they probably have to go 2-1 in their games against Louisville, Pitt and Villanova while winning all the rest of their games, something like that).

Notre Dame is nowhere to be found.

Conclusions? Could be that the mid-pack conference teams (Georgetown, Notre Dame...) weren't as good as we thought they were. Could be that some perceived back-of-the-pack teams (Cincinnati, Providence, Seton Hall...) were a lot better than we thought they were. Regardless, there's a lot more definition in the Big East standings than we expected there to be on Feb. 10. We'll see if the next four weeks can do anything to flip it upside down.