Wow. I mean, it was 67-65 at one point. But when you get EVERY SINGLE REBOUND FOR 10 MINUTES, you tend to pull away.
This result, combined with Louisville's thrashing of Seton Hall, means a lot of things:
-If Louisville wins at West Virginia on Saturday AND UConn loses at Pitt on Saturday, Louisville is the regular-season conference champion and No. 1 seed in the Big East tournament.
(-In that scenario, UConn (currently the No. 1 team in the country), would finish THIRD in the Big East, since they'd have lost two games and therefore the tiebreaker to Pitt.)
-If Louisville loses at West Virginia on Saturday and UConn loses at Pitt, I think Pitt is the No. 1 seed, but they'd all three be tied, and truly, I'm not sure what that means. More research is needed.
-If UConn wins at Pitt, they are the No. 1 seed and regular-season champ, no questions asked.
-Pitt is guaranteed a two-round bye, and along with UConn and Louisville won't have to play until the Thursday quarterfinals at the Garden.
-Marquette and Villanova are tied for fourth, and Nova holds the tiebreaker edge on Marquette. Which means, if Villanova beats Providence at home Thursday night OR Marquette loses at home to Syracuse on Saturday, then Nova gets the No. 4 seed and the two-round bye, and Marquette would finish fifth and have to play on Wednesday.
-Also tonight, DePaul lost to fall to 0-17. One game left to avoid the historic bagel. Guess where it is? That's right. At Georgetown.
Of COURSE I'm worried! How could you not be?
Showing posts with label Pitt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pitt. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Villanova 77, Notre Dame 60
Remember when Notre Dame couldn't lose at home?
Seriously, good back-on-track win for Villanova, which can now smell that No. 4 seed in the Big East tournament. Remember, if Marquette loses to Pitt on Wednesday, Villanova will hold the tiebreaker over Marquette. Which means (if Marquette loses to Pitt on Wednesday), all Villanova has to do now to secure a top-four seed and a two-day bye at the Garden is beat Providence in their regular-season finale Thursday. And if if they don't do that, they can still get the four-seed if Marquette loses to Pitt on Wednesday and also loses to Syracuse this weekend.
All of which has to make Villanova's loss to Georgetown on Saturday even more brutal, because if they'd just won that game, all they'd have to do is beat Providence to lock in that top-four spot.
But c'est la vie. Smart money still says they get it.
And remember, even if Marquette beats Pitt, Villanova can still get into the top four ahead of Pitt, since they beat the Panthers head-to-head and Pitt could easily lose its regular-season finale against UConn. So things are kind of coming up Villanova here at the end -- assuming this win tonight means they're back on track and will take care of Providence on Thursday.
Tonight's Big East schedule is more or less flotsam, with a Georgetown-St. John's game that looks like a preview of the 12-13 game in next Tuesday's first round at the very same venue. Cincinnati could use a win at South Florida if it still harbors any hope of escaping the Tuesday games. And Syracuse hosts Rutgers, which is 1-15 in the conference and horrible.
Seriously, good back-on-track win for Villanova, which can now smell that No. 4 seed in the Big East tournament. Remember, if Marquette loses to Pitt on Wednesday, Villanova will hold the tiebreaker over Marquette. Which means (if Marquette loses to Pitt on Wednesday), all Villanova has to do now to secure a top-four seed and a two-day bye at the Garden is beat Providence in their regular-season finale Thursday. And if if they don't do that, they can still get the four-seed if Marquette loses to Pitt on Wednesday and also loses to Syracuse this weekend.
All of which has to make Villanova's loss to Georgetown on Saturday even more brutal, because if they'd just won that game, all they'd have to do is beat Providence to lock in that top-four spot.
But c'est la vie. Smart money still says they get it.
And remember, even if Marquette beats Pitt, Villanova can still get into the top four ahead of Pitt, since they beat the Panthers head-to-head and Pitt could easily lose its regular-season finale against UConn. So things are kind of coming up Villanova here at the end -- assuming this win tonight means they're back on track and will take care of Providence on Thursday.
Tonight's Big East schedule is more or less flotsam, with a Georgetown-St. John's game that looks like a preview of the 12-13 game in next Tuesday's first round at the very same venue. Cincinnati could use a win at South Florida if it still harbors any hope of escaping the Tuesday games. And Syracuse hosts Rutgers, which is 1-15 in the conference and horrible.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Providence 81, Pitt 73 (Tuesday night)
Yeah, getting to this real late, for reasons outlined in my baseball blog (if you're into that sort of thing). But what kind of year is RCR having with predictions? Just when we say we're through with Providence, they go out and knock off the No. 1 team in the country.
Now you have to think the Friars have a shot at the Dance, right? Assuming they beat Rutgers and lose at Villanova, they're 18-12 overall and 10-8 in the conference going into the Big East tournament (where they're now quite likely to have a bye into the second round). Win one game in the Big East tournament, and you're 19-13, and the committee has to take a look at wins over Pitt and Syracuse.
Will it be enough? I say probably not. The committee has a history of screwing Providence, and the out-of-conference schedule was weak. But they'll be in the discussion. And if they get hot and win TWO Big East tournament games and make the semifinals? Jeez.
I say, if the Friars can upset Villanova next week in Philly, they get in. I just don't think they can do that.
Pitt now becomes the team that has to worry about getting passed by Villanova for that critical No. 4 seed in the conference tournament. If they lose one of their remaining three games (at Seton Hall/Marquette/UConn) and Villanova wins out, Villanova catches them. And Villanova has the tiebreaker, as a result of their 67-57 win on Jan. 28.
See? This Big East season did turn out to be exciting. It's just that Georgetown wasn't a part of it.
Watching UConn-Marquette now. Will be back, as you know.
Now you have to think the Friars have a shot at the Dance, right? Assuming they beat Rutgers and lose at Villanova, they're 18-12 overall and 10-8 in the conference going into the Big East tournament (where they're now quite likely to have a bye into the second round). Win one game in the Big East tournament, and you're 19-13, and the committee has to take a look at wins over Pitt and Syracuse.
Will it be enough? I say probably not. The committee has a history of screwing Providence, and the out-of-conference schedule was weak. But they'll be in the discussion. And if they get hot and win TWO Big East tournament games and make the semifinals? Jeez.
I say, if the Friars can upset Villanova next week in Philly, they get in. I just don't think they can do that.
Pitt now becomes the team that has to worry about getting passed by Villanova for that critical No. 4 seed in the conference tournament. If they lose one of their remaining three games (at Seton Hall/Marquette/UConn) and Villanova wins out, Villanova catches them. And Villanova has the tiebreaker, as a result of their 67-57 win on Jan. 28.
See? This Big East season did turn out to be exciting. It's just that Georgetown wasn't a part of it.
Watching UConn-Marquette now. Will be back, as you know.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Pitt 76, UConn 68
Yeah, this is late, but it's been a busy couple of days for reasons that have nothing to do with hoops. Trying to find a job and all that stuff, you know...
Anyway, my primary conclusion from Monday night's big game was one I've drawn before: Pitt is for real. I mean, as a Final Four and a national title contender. That UConn team was on fire. And yes, they're without Jerome Dyson. And yes, that had an obvious effect. But Pitt went in with a clear plan for stopping (or at least hassling) Hasheen Thabeet, which nobody had done in weeks, and it worked.
It worked because DeJaun Blair is an animal -- not tall enough but certainly tough, strong and mean enough to play Thabeet and make his night miserable. His clear mission throughout the first half was to be in between Thabeet and the basket -- not even necessarily to do anything while there, but just be in between the player and the hoop. And it worked.
Thabeet is a thug, as we've discussed here before, and a bully. And most teams don't have anybody who can or will stand up to him. Pitt is an obvious exception, and once they got into Thabeet's head and disrupted his game, they were in good shape. UConn had to move the ball outside, and without Dyson they didn't have enough scoring to put the game away. Kemba Walker is a great player, and will be better, but basically the Huskies had been running their offense through Thabeet (for good reason) for so long, they didn't know what to do when they couldn't anymore.
Let's make one thing clear, though. In spite of all of that, this was no Pitt rout. UConn went into the final minutes looking as if they'd pull the thing out in spite of the rough start. The Huskies remain one of the best, if not the best team in the nation, and should be considered a favorite come March even without Dyson.
All last night showed us is that that's true about the Pitt Panthers too.
Anyway, my primary conclusion from Monday night's big game was one I've drawn before: Pitt is for real. I mean, as a Final Four and a national title contender. That UConn team was on fire. And yes, they're without Jerome Dyson. And yes, that had an obvious effect. But Pitt went in with a clear plan for stopping (or at least hassling) Hasheen Thabeet, which nobody had done in weeks, and it worked.
It worked because DeJaun Blair is an animal -- not tall enough but certainly tough, strong and mean enough to play Thabeet and make his night miserable. His clear mission throughout the first half was to be in between Thabeet and the basket -- not even necessarily to do anything while there, but just be in between the player and the hoop. And it worked.
Thabeet is a thug, as we've discussed here before, and a bully. And most teams don't have anybody who can or will stand up to him. Pitt is an obvious exception, and once they got into Thabeet's head and disrupted his game, they were in good shape. UConn had to move the ball outside, and without Dyson they didn't have enough scoring to put the game away. Kemba Walker is a great player, and will be better, but basically the Huskies had been running their offense through Thabeet (for good reason) for so long, they didn't know what to do when they couldn't anymore.
Let's make one thing clear, though. In spite of all of that, this was no Pitt rout. UConn went into the final minutes looking as if they'd pull the thing out in spite of the rough start. The Huskies remain one of the best, if not the best team in the nation, and should be considered a favorite come March even without Dyson.
All last night showed us is that that's true about the Pitt Panthers too.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Wednesday Wonderings
Six games in the conference tonight, but not too many compelling matchups. Pitt at Villanova looks like the best one, though I am curious to see if Providence can finally pick up a quality win as they host Syracuse. (Regular readers know we here at RCR are always on the lookout for something bad happening to Syracuse.)
So, a couple of random notes on a snowy Wednesday morning here in NJ. (Kids are home from school -- yippee!!)
-Cracked Sidewalks points out two interesting things about Marquette's win at Notre Dame on Monday night. First, it was apparently the eighth anniversary of Al McGuire's death (which doesn't seem that long ago). Second, only four players scored points for Marquette in the game. That's right. They scored 71 points, and the only ones who scored were Jerel McNeal (27), Dominic James (15), Wes Mathews (16) and Lazar Heyward (13).
And they say Georgetown's not deep!
Seriously, though, you can get away with a lack of depth when your best four players are this good. I still think Marquette will lose a game here at some point. Once they stop playing DePaul every other game, maybe. Somebody will be able to out-physical them inside. Their guards will have a cold shooting night. Their schedule has been relatively soft so far, and their final five games at at Georgetown/UConn/at Louisville/at Pitt/Syracuse. So they will be tested. But they are good, and the ND win proves it. Even if it was a four-man effort.
-Our fighting Hoyas do need a win tonight at Cincinnati. Can't go to Marquette on Saturday with a four-game losing streak. Something needs to happen to stem the feel of a free-fall and avoid a situation like the one in which Notre Dame now finds itself. I'm among those who would like to see more of Henry Sims, if for no other reason than to help with the horrendous rebounding problems. (Though I do feel like this could be a case of the most popular player in town always being the backup quarterback.) GU will need some size and toughness inside to combat Mike Williams and Yancey Gates tonight, and if they get pushed around early (and they keep chunking those three-point bricks), I fear a disaster.
-The key for Villanova is always Scotty Reynolds, but I think the key tonight, if they're to have a chance against Pitt, is going to be Dante Cunningham. They'll have to do something to keep the Panthers honest inside, and Cunningham's energetic play last week in the first half was a huge reason the Wildcats were able to hang in the way they did against Connecticut.
That's just off the top of my head in the morning, with the kids screaming their heads off. Maybe I'll check back later.
So, a couple of random notes on a snowy Wednesday morning here in NJ. (Kids are home from school -- yippee!!)
-Cracked Sidewalks points out two interesting things about Marquette's win at Notre Dame on Monday night. First, it was apparently the eighth anniversary of Al McGuire's death (which doesn't seem that long ago). Second, only four players scored points for Marquette in the game. That's right. They scored 71 points, and the only ones who scored were Jerel McNeal (27), Dominic James (15), Wes Mathews (16) and Lazar Heyward (13).
And they say Georgetown's not deep!
Seriously, though, you can get away with a lack of depth when your best four players are this good. I still think Marquette will lose a game here at some point. Once they stop playing DePaul every other game, maybe. Somebody will be able to out-physical them inside. Their guards will have a cold shooting night. Their schedule has been relatively soft so far, and their final five games at at Georgetown/UConn/at Louisville/at Pitt/Syracuse. So they will be tested. But they are good, and the ND win proves it. Even if it was a four-man effort.
-Our fighting Hoyas do need a win tonight at Cincinnati. Can't go to Marquette on Saturday with a four-game losing streak. Something needs to happen to stem the feel of a free-fall and avoid a situation like the one in which Notre Dame now finds itself. I'm among those who would like to see more of Henry Sims, if for no other reason than to help with the horrendous rebounding problems. (Though I do feel like this could be a case of the most popular player in town always being the backup quarterback.) GU will need some size and toughness inside to combat Mike Williams and Yancey Gates tonight, and if they get pushed around early (and they keep chunking those three-point bricks), I fear a disaster.
-The key for Villanova is always Scotty Reynolds, but I think the key tonight, if they're to have a chance against Pitt, is going to be Dante Cunningham. They'll have to do something to keep the Panthers honest inside, and Cunningham's energetic play last week in the first half was a huge reason the Wildcats were able to hang in the way they did against Connecticut.
That's just off the top of my head in the morning, with the kids screaming their heads off. Maybe I'll check back later.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Pitt 78, Syracuse 60
Never gets old, really. I could watch Syracuse lose at anything. Basketball, football, lacrosse ("Lacrosse, Liz Lemon!"), chess...anything.
But on to the larger point, which is Pitt. Syracuse has a fine little orange team this year, but it's simply not equipped to beat Pitt at Pitt. Even among the great teams in this conference in this great year, there are mismatches, and this game was one of them.
The amazing thing is, Syracuse has a cat that can actually play DeJuan Blair. Arinze Onuaku is as like Blair as anybody in the conference. (With the possible exception of Jeff Adrien, who scares the hell out of me. He might even scare DeJuan Blair -- I haven't had the chance to ask.) He's big and physical down low and plays with a lot of Blair's toughness and (on defense, at least) nose for the ball.
But Blair is so much more than big and tough. He's got post moves. He's got energy. He plays with the fluidity of a swing-forward. He can hit a jump shot, for goodness' sake.
And he's got that smile, which sounds like a corny thing to say but actually does matter. It's all part of his on-court persona, which is about emitting the very clear impression that he's got it all under control. The expression on his face when Onuaku shoved him out of bounds under the basket after a rebound and got teed up for it late in the first half was downright whimsical -- as if to say, "Yeah, I got you, man. You got the ball this time, but I got you."
Blair's an elite player -- the kind of player a team like Pitt needs to ascend to real Final Four contention. But one of the best things about Pitt is that, even if a guy like Onuaku plays some fantastic game and somehow neutralizes Blair, you still have to contain Sam Young. And Syracuse could not.
Pitt needs to watch those free throws -- that was scary bad in the first half -- but they have a lot going for them, not the least of which is a little bit of perimeter defense. Rautins and Flynn of Cuse were a combined 9-for-30 in this game, which is horrendous. I mean, unless you really, really don't like Syracuse.
Just sayin'.
*One other point: This game says a lot about Louisville, which didn't play in it. Pitt is excellent at wearing down an opponent. They are big, tough and physical, and they're in great shape. They can physically outlast people. And Louisville physically outlasted them on Sunday night. Yes, I still would have liked to see the Pitt-Louisville game with Blair in it the whole way (instead of limited to 20 minutes due to foul trouble), but the fact remains that Louisville is scary as hell, and as dangerous as any team in here if it's getting its collective head together/ass in gear. Which it appears it is.
*Miscellaneous crap: Providence held off Cincinnati in a somewhat meaningless Bottom Seven affair. It'd be totally meaningless except I can't seem to quit Providence. I still think they have a little run, or at least an upset or two in them. But watching them gag away that game to Marquette on Saturday shook me up, and if they'd gone out tonight and lost to freaking Cincinnati, I'd have probably given up my mild but admittedly inexplicable fascination with them.
*Upcoming: The only game on the Big East schedule Tuesday is DePaul-South Florida, which is probably going to be a strong candidate for Worst Big East Game of the Year. The only interesting storyline is whether DePaul can actually win a conference game this year. This offers some semblance of an opportunity, though I wouldn't run out and bet it. The game is on ESPNU, so I may actually watch some of it. Yeah, that's right. That's how sick I am.
*Upcoming Wednesday: Villanova at UConn, Louisville at Rutgers. The former is the obviously better matchup, but I am curious to see if Louisville has any kind of hangover after the big win Sunday. They seem like a hangover-type of team, and not just because that mascot of theirs is always lying down next to the court. We've still had only one bad in-conference loss (meaning: a loss by one of the top nine to one of the bottom seven -- in this case, Notre Dame at St. John's on Jan. 3), so we're ever on the lookout. The Scarlet Knights get the next crack at it, and they'll have their undersized hands full.
But on to the larger point, which is Pitt. Syracuse has a fine little orange team this year, but it's simply not equipped to beat Pitt at Pitt. Even among the great teams in this conference in this great year, there are mismatches, and this game was one of them.
The amazing thing is, Syracuse has a cat that can actually play DeJuan Blair. Arinze Onuaku is as like Blair as anybody in the conference. (With the possible exception of Jeff Adrien, who scares the hell out of me. He might even scare DeJuan Blair -- I haven't had the chance to ask.) He's big and physical down low and plays with a lot of Blair's toughness and (on defense, at least) nose for the ball.
But Blair is so much more than big and tough. He's got post moves. He's got energy. He plays with the fluidity of a swing-forward. He can hit a jump shot, for goodness' sake.
And he's got that smile, which sounds like a corny thing to say but actually does matter. It's all part of his on-court persona, which is about emitting the very clear impression that he's got it all under control. The expression on his face when Onuaku shoved him out of bounds under the basket after a rebound and got teed up for it late in the first half was downright whimsical -- as if to say, "Yeah, I got you, man. You got the ball this time, but I got you."
Blair's an elite player -- the kind of player a team like Pitt needs to ascend to real Final Four contention. But one of the best things about Pitt is that, even if a guy like Onuaku plays some fantastic game and somehow neutralizes Blair, you still have to contain Sam Young. And Syracuse could not.
Pitt needs to watch those free throws -- that was scary bad in the first half -- but they have a lot going for them, not the least of which is a little bit of perimeter defense. Rautins and Flynn of Cuse were a combined 9-for-30 in this game, which is horrendous. I mean, unless you really, really don't like Syracuse.
Just sayin'.
*One other point: This game says a lot about Louisville, which didn't play in it. Pitt is excellent at wearing down an opponent. They are big, tough and physical, and they're in great shape. They can physically outlast people. And Louisville physically outlasted them on Sunday night. Yes, I still would have liked to see the Pitt-Louisville game with Blair in it the whole way (instead of limited to 20 minutes due to foul trouble), but the fact remains that Louisville is scary as hell, and as dangerous as any team in here if it's getting its collective head together/ass in gear. Which it appears it is.
*Miscellaneous crap: Providence held off Cincinnati in a somewhat meaningless Bottom Seven affair. It'd be totally meaningless except I can't seem to quit Providence. I still think they have a little run, or at least an upset or two in them. But watching them gag away that game to Marquette on Saturday shook me up, and if they'd gone out tonight and lost to freaking Cincinnati, I'd have probably given up my mild but admittedly inexplicable fascination with them.
*Upcoming: The only game on the Big East schedule Tuesday is DePaul-South Florida, which is probably going to be a strong candidate for Worst Big East Game of the Year. The only interesting storyline is whether DePaul can actually win a conference game this year. This offers some semblance of an opportunity, though I wouldn't run out and bet it. The game is on ESPNU, so I may actually watch some of it. Yeah, that's right. That's how sick I am.
*Upcoming Wednesday: Villanova at UConn, Louisville at Rutgers. The former is the obviously better matchup, but I am curious to see if Louisville has any kind of hangover after the big win Sunday. They seem like a hangover-type of team, and not just because that mascot of theirs is always lying down next to the court. We've still had only one bad in-conference loss (meaning: a loss by one of the top nine to one of the bottom seven -- in this case, Notre Dame at St. John's on Jan. 3), so we're ever on the lookout. The Scarlet Knights get the next crack at it, and they'll have their undersized hands full.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Saturday Night Recap -- Cards and Eagles Flying High
The only two undefeated teams left in Big East play are Louisville and Marquette, and man did they earn it.
The angle on this one seems to be that Louisville outlasted Pitt physically, wearing down the nation's No. 1 team with its relentless press and handing the Panthers their first loss of the season. It's a viable take that jives with what we saw Louisville do to Notre Dame, but there has to be a caveat. DeJuan Blair missed half the game due to foul trouble. During the brief times in the second half when he was on the floor, Pitt looked like a totally different team. And had he been able to play more, Pitt probably would have looked like the better team. Playing without Blair is like trying to drive a truck through three feet of snow without a plow. Louisville's pressure is the snow, and it's tough to fight through. And if you're trying it without your plow, you have no chance.
But those are the ifs, and these are the facts: Louisville keeps winning, and when they play a focused, intense game, they're as good as anybody in the conference. Their point guard play is shaky, and there are still too many mistakes. I mean, the whole final minute was a mess -- dumb fouls and turnovers that kept Pitt in the game when it could have been salted away. This happened against Kentucky and Villanova, too -- maddeningly sloppy play by a team that should be a better closer. But they won those games too. And if they can keep winning, gaining confidence and growing as they win, they'll be in pretty good shape come postseason time. What we know about them already is that it's real tough to run with them for 40 minutes.
So that's the Pitt-Louisville game, and then there's Marquette-Providence, a bizarre late night show up in Rhode Island in which the underdog home team blew 13-point second-half lead and lost by nine and the brother of an injured Providence player wandered onto the court during a free throw to talk to the officials about a call.
(Yeah, if you didn't see it, it looked as weird as it sounds. Jeff Xavier is the Providence player, and he takes an elbow in the eye. Starts bleeding like crazy. Leaves the court, very upset, and doesn't return to the game. Ugly. Worst part is, no foul was called on that play. A foul was called seconds later, and while they were lined up and getting ready to shoot it, Jonathan Xavier, Jeff's brother, wanders out onto the court in a big old winter coat and confronts one of the officials. All of a sudden people realize what's happening, and a couple of people start rushing the guy off the court. Scary, really.)
In terms of the game, Providence looked heartbroken at the end, and they should have. This was their game, totally, and they let it slip away. Of course it didn't help that Lazar Hayward started bombing threes, but just because that happened didn't mean Providence had to take itself out of its own game on the other end and start rushing perimeter shots too. It didn't mean they had to start turning the ball over as if they were giving out Toys for Tots. And it didn't mean they had to chunk every single free throw in the final five minutes.
Providence is an experienced, senior-heavy team with a size advantage over Marquette, so it was weird to see them fall apart like that. But Marquette is also an experienced, senior-heavy team, and they're much better than Providence, so I guess it should have been a big surprise to see them assert that.
I count this as a big win for Marquette. It was on the road against a team that's probably the best of that "bottom seven" group and had a 13-point lead on them with less than 15 minutes to go. Right now, everyone still wants to say Pitt and UConn are the best two teams in the conference, but Marquette's done nothing wrong. Sure, they haven't played as tough a schedule as some have. And yes, I imagine they will run into problems dealing with the interior size of teams like Pitt, UConn, Louisville and Syracuse. But if they can stretch out defenses with their outside shooting, they'll be able to (a) stay in those games and (b) run their offense around the trees.
Their schedule will get tough, eventually. I mean, they have DePaul twice in their next four games, which really shouldn't be allowed. And they still have South Florida, St. John's and Seton Hall to come. But their final five games are at Georgetown/UConn/at Louisville/at Pitt/Syracuse. So we'll get to find out for sure whether they really are this good. But after last night, I think we have less reason to doubt it.
The angle on this one seems to be that Louisville outlasted Pitt physically, wearing down the nation's No. 1 team with its relentless press and handing the Panthers their first loss of the season. It's a viable take that jives with what we saw Louisville do to Notre Dame, but there has to be a caveat. DeJuan Blair missed half the game due to foul trouble. During the brief times in the second half when he was on the floor, Pitt looked like a totally different team. And had he been able to play more, Pitt probably would have looked like the better team. Playing without Blair is like trying to drive a truck through three feet of snow without a plow. Louisville's pressure is the snow, and it's tough to fight through. And if you're trying it without your plow, you have no chance.
But those are the ifs, and these are the facts: Louisville keeps winning, and when they play a focused, intense game, they're as good as anybody in the conference. Their point guard play is shaky, and there are still too many mistakes. I mean, the whole final minute was a mess -- dumb fouls and turnovers that kept Pitt in the game when it could have been salted away. This happened against Kentucky and Villanova, too -- maddeningly sloppy play by a team that should be a better closer. But they won those games too. And if they can keep winning, gaining confidence and growing as they win, they'll be in pretty good shape come postseason time. What we know about them already is that it's real tough to run with them for 40 minutes.
So that's the Pitt-Louisville game, and then there's Marquette-Providence, a bizarre late night show up in Rhode Island in which the underdog home team blew 13-point second-half lead and lost by nine and the brother of an injured Providence player wandered onto the court during a free throw to talk to the officials about a call.
(Yeah, if you didn't see it, it looked as weird as it sounds. Jeff Xavier is the Providence player, and he takes an elbow in the eye. Starts bleeding like crazy. Leaves the court, very upset, and doesn't return to the game. Ugly. Worst part is, no foul was called on that play. A foul was called seconds later, and while they were lined up and getting ready to shoot it, Jonathan Xavier, Jeff's brother, wanders out onto the court in a big old winter coat and confronts one of the officials. All of a sudden people realize what's happening, and a couple of people start rushing the guy off the court. Scary, really.)
In terms of the game, Providence looked heartbroken at the end, and they should have. This was their game, totally, and they let it slip away. Of course it didn't help that Lazar Hayward started bombing threes, but just because that happened didn't mean Providence had to take itself out of its own game on the other end and start rushing perimeter shots too. It didn't mean they had to start turning the ball over as if they were giving out Toys for Tots. And it didn't mean they had to chunk every single free throw in the final five minutes.
Providence is an experienced, senior-heavy team with a size advantage over Marquette, so it was weird to see them fall apart like that. But Marquette is also an experienced, senior-heavy team, and they're much better than Providence, so I guess it should have been a big surprise to see them assert that.
I count this as a big win for Marquette. It was on the road against a team that's probably the best of that "bottom seven" group and had a 13-point lead on them with less than 15 minutes to go. Right now, everyone still wants to say Pitt and UConn are the best two teams in the conference, but Marquette's done nothing wrong. Sure, they haven't played as tough a schedule as some have. And yes, I imagine they will run into problems dealing with the interior size of teams like Pitt, UConn, Louisville and Syracuse. But if they can stretch out defenses with their outside shooting, they'll be able to (a) stay in those games and (b) run their offense around the trees.
Their schedule will get tough, eventually. I mean, they have DePaul twice in their next four games, which really shouldn't be allowed. And they still have South Florida, St. John's and Seton Hall to come. But their final five games are at Georgetown/UConn/at Louisville/at Pitt/Syracuse. So we'll get to find out for sure whether they really are this good. But after last night, I think we have less reason to doubt it.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Saturday Preview -- Games Big and Small
While passing the jittery, excited time remaining before the Friday Night Lights premiere for non-DirecTV subscribers, I figured a primer on the six Saturday Big East games might be a cool distraction. I came to this after evaluating several other options:
1. Going for a run. (It's 11 degrees.)
2. Going to the gym. (Later, when it's 3:00 and nobody's there. I promise.)
3. Updating my new baseball blog, nybaseballhack.blogspot.com. (Shameless plug.)
4. Eating lunch. (Though, I could eat while typing, and you'd never know...)
5. Looking for a new job. (There aren't any, which is why this blog exists.)
So here are six thumbnails, each of which includes a brief RCR preview along with a Ken Pomeroy rankings comparison of the teams involved. The games are ranked in order of their importance/slash level of interest to this blog, which admits to a bias:
Georgetown at Duke, 1:30 pm, CBS
Pomeroy Prediction: Duke(1) 71, Georgetown(4) 64
RCR's Take: The Hoyas spent the first half Wednesday night shooting over Syracuse's zone. Saturday, they'll have a much harder time in the face of Duke's perimeter pressure. This will be more like the defense they faced last Saturday against Providence, only...you know...a lot better. For Georgetown to win, they'll need to be able to move the ball inside and out, to and from Greg Monroe, whose inside presence is one of the few advantages the Hoyas have and whose passing ability might be the only way to free up the guards for the outside shots. Also, it wouldn't hurt if a massive flu bug hit the Duke campus tonight and kept the crowd to a minimum...
PREDICTION: I fear a game somewhat like the Tennessee game, where the Hoyas played well, especially on defense, but Tennessee hit everything in sight. I don't foresee the Duke pressure rattling the GU guards, but I think the crowd and the Blue Devils' depth will wear down Georgetown in the second half. Duke 79, Georgetown 68.
Pittsburgh at Louisville, 6 pm, ESPN
Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville(14) 66, Pittsburgh(5) 65
RCR's Take: Those who've been reading know I like Pitt a lot and I'm not sold on Louisville, but the Cardinals showed depth, strength and toughness earlier this week against Notre Dame, and they are the home team. And Pomeroy picks an upset against his own rankings. Is it possible? Sure, if Louisville's zone disrupts Pitt's ability to feed the ball to DeJuan Blair inside. And if Samardo Samuels can rebound enough to limit Blair's second-chance points. And if the Pitt players are distracted, as I always am, by the shockingly recumbent Louisville mascot. (Seriously! He just sits there in that corner all game!!)
PREDICTION: It's Pitt's first real test since taking over No. 1. Louisville is feeling good about some recent escapes. It all points red. But I'm not buying it. For me, even if Samuels and contain Blair, somebody's got to contain Sam Young, and I don't think Earl Clark has it in him to do that for 40 minutes. Pitt 62, Louisville 57.
Notre Dame at Syracuse, Noon, ESPN
Pomeroy Prediction: Syracuse(32) 86, Notre Dame(42) 79
RCR's Take: First, wow. Look how low Pomeroy has these two teams. He was forecasting an easy victory for Georgetown over Syracuse on Wednesday, and why not? The Hoyas were the home team, ranked in his top 5, while the Orange were sitting there on his NCAA tournament bubble. Looking at his Syracuse page, it appears the Orange lose massive points because they turn the ball over too much and don't hit free throws. But that's not likely to matter against a Notre Dame team that plays no defense. Syracuse's best bet is to do what they can against Harangody inside but not get down once he starts hitting those zany fall-away hook shots from six feet. There's nothing you can do about that. Play your zone, drive their guards crazy, get back down the other end of the floor and score those easy buckets Notre Dame is going to be giving you all day.
Prediction: I'd love to pick against Syracuse, because I'd love it if Syracuse lost all of their games. But I can't do it here. Not at home. Not against the softest good team in the conference. Notre Dame doesn't play defense. Won't play defense. Looks for all the world as if it doesn't consider defense an important part of the game. If he's really, really on, Jonny Flynn could have a Jodie Meeks-level offensive performance against Notre Dame. Syracuse gets the taste of the GU game out of its mouth in a hurry. Syracuse 90, Notre Dame 75.
Marquette at Providence, 9 pm, ESPN2
Pomeroy Prediction: Marquette(22) 81, Providence(78) 76
RCR's Take: RCR is staying up to watch this game. I love the Marquette guards but haven't had the chance to watch them play a whole game yet. I love Providence's experience and toughness. There are going to be seniors all over the court in this game, and I think it's a good candidate to be Providence's first "surprise" win of the season. Remember, so far this year, the only Top 9 Big East team to lose to one of the league's bottom-tier teams is Notre Dame, which fell at St. John's a couple of weeks back. If Marquette can shoot the ball and contain Efejuku, they'll come away with a win about which they can feel really good. Because if there's a team in that bottom tier that's going to sneak up and challenge the Top 9, Providence is it.
Prediction: I've been thinking over the past week that Marquette might be my pick to win the conference. They have a chance to show something here, and if they win easily, I'll drive the bandwagon. But I just have this feeling. Late game, far from home, outmanned inside...I see somebody in black and white going off and having a big game. Providence 78, Marquette 77.
South Florida at West Virginia, Noon, ESPN Full Court
Pomeroy Prediction: West Virginia(7) 71, South Florida (105) 53
RCR's Take: Pomeroy has the Mountaineers seventh in the country, but they're 1-2 in conference following losses to UConn and at Marquette. They rebound the ball well, especially on offense. They force turnovers. They have a big man in DeSean Butler and a shooter in Alex Ruoff who are just going to be way too much for an undersized, undermanned Bulls team that's leaving sunny Tampa for a frigid trip north.
Prediction: West Virginia is dying for an easy conference win, and they'll get it against a South Florida team that won't be able to touch them on the boards. West Virginia 79, South Florida 60.
Cincinnati at DePaul, 2 pm, ESPNU
Pomeroy Prediction: Cincinnati(86) 71, DePaul(181) 67
RCR's Take: It's a testament to how good the Big East is that this game would be on ESPNU, a channel you can actually get nationally. Um, let's see...Cincy is a strong offensive rebounding team, thanks mainly to freshman Yancy Gates. He, Mike Williams and Rashad Bishop form a fairly impressive front line that might be able to win some games in a different conference. DePaul can't shoot from anywhere, doesn't rebound especially well, misses free throws...they're a bottom of the Big East barrel team that's facing a rare chance to pick up a conference win. In fact, a look at the remaining schedules indicates that these two teams are going to be sorry to see each other go.
Prediction: Pomeroy's projecting a total of two wins the rest of the way for these two teams combined. And it's not one each. Cincinnati 80, DePaul 65
1. Going for a run. (It's 11 degrees.)
2. Going to the gym. (Later, when it's 3:00 and nobody's there. I promise.)
3. Updating my new baseball blog, nybaseballhack.blogspot.com. (Shameless plug.)
4. Eating lunch. (Though, I could eat while typing, and you'd never know...)
5. Looking for a new job. (There aren't any, which is why this blog exists.)
So here are six thumbnails, each of which includes a brief RCR preview along with a Ken Pomeroy rankings comparison of the teams involved. The games are ranked in order of their importance/slash level of interest to this blog, which admits to a bias:
Georgetown at Duke, 1:30 pm, CBS
Pomeroy Prediction: Duke(1) 71, Georgetown(4) 64
RCR's Take: The Hoyas spent the first half Wednesday night shooting over Syracuse's zone. Saturday, they'll have a much harder time in the face of Duke's perimeter pressure. This will be more like the defense they faced last Saturday against Providence, only...you know...a lot better. For Georgetown to win, they'll need to be able to move the ball inside and out, to and from Greg Monroe, whose inside presence is one of the few advantages the Hoyas have and whose passing ability might be the only way to free up the guards for the outside shots. Also, it wouldn't hurt if a massive flu bug hit the Duke campus tonight and kept the crowd to a minimum...
PREDICTION: I fear a game somewhat like the Tennessee game, where the Hoyas played well, especially on defense, but Tennessee hit everything in sight. I don't foresee the Duke pressure rattling the GU guards, but I think the crowd and the Blue Devils' depth will wear down Georgetown in the second half. Duke 79, Georgetown 68.
Pittsburgh at Louisville, 6 pm, ESPN
Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville(14) 66, Pittsburgh(5) 65
RCR's Take: Those who've been reading know I like Pitt a lot and I'm not sold on Louisville, but the Cardinals showed depth, strength and toughness earlier this week against Notre Dame, and they are the home team. And Pomeroy picks an upset against his own rankings. Is it possible? Sure, if Louisville's zone disrupts Pitt's ability to feed the ball to DeJuan Blair inside. And if Samardo Samuels can rebound enough to limit Blair's second-chance points. And if the Pitt players are distracted, as I always am, by the shockingly recumbent Louisville mascot. (Seriously! He just sits there in that corner all game!!)
PREDICTION: It's Pitt's first real test since taking over No. 1. Louisville is feeling good about some recent escapes. It all points red. But I'm not buying it. For me, even if Samuels and contain Blair, somebody's got to contain Sam Young, and I don't think Earl Clark has it in him to do that for 40 minutes. Pitt 62, Louisville 57.
Notre Dame at Syracuse, Noon, ESPN
Pomeroy Prediction: Syracuse(32) 86, Notre Dame(42) 79
RCR's Take: First, wow. Look how low Pomeroy has these two teams. He was forecasting an easy victory for Georgetown over Syracuse on Wednesday, and why not? The Hoyas were the home team, ranked in his top 5, while the Orange were sitting there on his NCAA tournament bubble. Looking at his Syracuse page, it appears the Orange lose massive points because they turn the ball over too much and don't hit free throws. But that's not likely to matter against a Notre Dame team that plays no defense. Syracuse's best bet is to do what they can against Harangody inside but not get down once he starts hitting those zany fall-away hook shots from six feet. There's nothing you can do about that. Play your zone, drive their guards crazy, get back down the other end of the floor and score those easy buckets Notre Dame is going to be giving you all day.
Prediction: I'd love to pick against Syracuse, because I'd love it if Syracuse lost all of their games. But I can't do it here. Not at home. Not against the softest good team in the conference. Notre Dame doesn't play defense. Won't play defense. Looks for all the world as if it doesn't consider defense an important part of the game. If he's really, really on, Jonny Flynn could have a Jodie Meeks-level offensive performance against Notre Dame. Syracuse gets the taste of the GU game out of its mouth in a hurry. Syracuse 90, Notre Dame 75.
Marquette at Providence, 9 pm, ESPN2
Pomeroy Prediction: Marquette(22) 81, Providence(78) 76
RCR's Take: RCR is staying up to watch this game. I love the Marquette guards but haven't had the chance to watch them play a whole game yet. I love Providence's experience and toughness. There are going to be seniors all over the court in this game, and I think it's a good candidate to be Providence's first "surprise" win of the season. Remember, so far this year, the only Top 9 Big East team to lose to one of the league's bottom-tier teams is Notre Dame, which fell at St. John's a couple of weeks back. If Marquette can shoot the ball and contain Efejuku, they'll come away with a win about which they can feel really good. Because if there's a team in that bottom tier that's going to sneak up and challenge the Top 9, Providence is it.
Prediction: I've been thinking over the past week that Marquette might be my pick to win the conference. They have a chance to show something here, and if they win easily, I'll drive the bandwagon. But I just have this feeling. Late game, far from home, outmanned inside...I see somebody in black and white going off and having a big game. Providence 78, Marquette 77.
South Florida at West Virginia, Noon, ESPN Full Court
Pomeroy Prediction: West Virginia(7) 71, South Florida (105) 53
RCR's Take: Pomeroy has the Mountaineers seventh in the country, but they're 1-2 in conference following losses to UConn and at Marquette. They rebound the ball well, especially on offense. They force turnovers. They have a big man in DeSean Butler and a shooter in Alex Ruoff who are just going to be way too much for an undersized, undermanned Bulls team that's leaving sunny Tampa for a frigid trip north.
Prediction: West Virginia is dying for an easy conference win, and they'll get it against a South Florida team that won't be able to touch them on the boards. West Virginia 79, South Florida 60.
Cincinnati at DePaul, 2 pm, ESPNU
Pomeroy Prediction: Cincinnati(86) 71, DePaul(181) 67
RCR's Take: It's a testament to how good the Big East is that this game would be on ESPNU, a channel you can actually get nationally. Um, let's see...Cincy is a strong offensive rebounding team, thanks mainly to freshman Yancy Gates. He, Mike Williams and Rashad Bishop form a fairly impressive front line that might be able to win some games in a different conference. DePaul can't shoot from anywhere, doesn't rebound especially well, misses free throws...they're a bottom of the Big East barrel team that's facing a rare chance to pick up a conference win. In fact, a look at the remaining schedules indicates that these two teams are going to be sorry to see each other go.
Prediction: Pomeroy's projecting a total of two wins the rest of the way for these two teams combined. And it's not one each. Cincinnati 80, DePaul 65
Monday, January 12, 2009
Weekend Recap -- Still not buying Louisville
I mean, right? They tried to give that game to Villanova about 17 different times in the final minute, and Nova just wouldn't take it. Missed free throws, missed put-backs...So many chances to make the Cardinals pay for the loose, lackadaiscial way they play the game, and yet they come away losers, just as Kentucky did a week earlier after coming back when L'ville refused to close them out.
I guess you could say you should give Louisville credit for winning these games when they're obviously not playing as well as they should be playing. But I don't think a team deserves credit when it's not playing as well as it should be playing. I think Louisville should be expected to play better than they are. I think Pitino should have more control over his team and the on-court decisions he makes than he does.
I think Louisville is going to get beaten a few times this year when it shouldn't. I think they should be able to hold or build on leads in the second half, and I don't like the body language of their players when it does start to slip away -- as if they're annoyed and tired instead of angry and determined.
Villanova by the Numbers has a stat breakdown that shows how the Wildcats hung right with the Cardinals in "athletic" stats like steals and blocks, and how they were able to erase Louisville's shooting advantage in the second half.
Maybe I'm making too much of this. It was, after all, a road win in the conference. The conference's top teams are basically doing what they're supposed to do. Pitt, Marquette, Syracuse and UConn all rolled this weekend. Georgetown looked sluggish early but came back behind Greg Monroe to handle Providence.
The conference's "Power Nine" have a combined eight losses. Of those, only Notre Dame's loss at St. John's qualifies as a bad loss.
Villanova's losses are home to Louisville and at Marquette. Georgetown's are home to Pitt and at Notre Dame. West Virginia's are home to UConn and at Marquette. UConn lost at home to Georgetown.
So far, it's been about taking care of business, which in the end is what Louisville did, no matter how shaky they looked at the end.
Right now, the best team in the conference is Pitt, but I sure wish they played Marquette before March 4, because I'm starting to wonder if the best team in the conference might be Marquette, and I'd like to know.
(And yes, I know it could be Syracuse, but we here at RCR are choosing not to acknowledge that horrifying possibility until we absolutely have to -- like, February 15, earliest.)
Tonight is Notre Dame at Louisville. If I were a betting man I'd bet the over, because neither one of these teams likes playing defense very much. I say Harangody takes down the Cardinals on the road with some help from the perimeter, where the Irish should outwit, out-hustle and out-shoot the home team. Louisville should be able to out-athlete them, but to do that they'll have to maintain their focus for 40 full minutes. And from what I've seen this year, they don't.
I guess you could say you should give Louisville credit for winning these games when they're obviously not playing as well as they should be playing. But I don't think a team deserves credit when it's not playing as well as it should be playing. I think Louisville should be expected to play better than they are. I think Pitino should have more control over his team and the on-court decisions he makes than he does.
I think Louisville is going to get beaten a few times this year when it shouldn't. I think they should be able to hold or build on leads in the second half, and I don't like the body language of their players when it does start to slip away -- as if they're annoyed and tired instead of angry and determined.
Villanova by the Numbers has a stat breakdown that shows how the Wildcats hung right with the Cardinals in "athletic" stats like steals and blocks, and how they were able to erase Louisville's shooting advantage in the second half.
Maybe I'm making too much of this. It was, after all, a road win in the conference. The conference's top teams are basically doing what they're supposed to do. Pitt, Marquette, Syracuse and UConn all rolled this weekend. Georgetown looked sluggish early but came back behind Greg Monroe to handle Providence.
The conference's "Power Nine" have a combined eight losses. Of those, only Notre Dame's loss at St. John's qualifies as a bad loss.
Villanova's losses are home to Louisville and at Marquette. Georgetown's are home to Pitt and at Notre Dame. West Virginia's are home to UConn and at Marquette. UConn lost at home to Georgetown.
So far, it's been about taking care of business, which in the end is what Louisville did, no matter how shaky they looked at the end.
Right now, the best team in the conference is Pitt, but I sure wish they played Marquette before March 4, because I'm starting to wonder if the best team in the conference might be Marquette, and I'd like to know.
(And yes, I know it could be Syracuse, but we here at RCR are choosing not to acknowledge that horrifying possibility until we absolutely have to -- like, February 15, earliest.)
Tonight is Notre Dame at Louisville. If I were a betting man I'd bet the over, because neither one of these teams likes playing defense very much. I say Harangody takes down the Cardinals on the road with some help from the perimeter, where the Irish should outwit, out-hustle and out-shoot the home team. Louisville should be able to out-athlete them, but to do that they'll have to maintain their focus for 40 full minutes. And from what I've seen this year, they don't.
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