Four games of some import on the Big East sked today. Rankings-wise, the biggest appears to be No. 10 Marquette at No. 6 Louisville. And as far as quality basketball goes, this should be the best game. But Marquette has to still be reeling from the loss of Dominic James, while Louisville still has hopes of overtaking UConn for the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.
By the way, I know Villanova's inexplicable loss yesterday clinched a top-four spot for UConn in the Big East tournament, but it did the same for Louisville too, right? The Cardinals have 13 wins, the most Nova can win is 13, and Louisville beat them head-to-head? Now, I guess if Louisville and Nova were to end up with the same record as Pitt and Marquette, the tiebreaker gets thrown into a byzantine formula that only these people seem to truly understand. But it suffices to say that, if they get a win today, the Cardinals get the first two days off at the Garden next week.
Elsewhere, West Virginia needs to be careful in Tampa and Providence CANNOT afford a slip-up on the road in Piscataway. I repeat: CANNOT. The NCAA tournament committee annually looks for reasons to keep Providence out. This week's victory over No. 1 Pitt will make that tougher, but a loss today to pitiful Rutgers would make it a lot easier. Friars MUST take care of business here to have a chance.
And then there's Cincinnati at Syracuse, which is a huge game for seeding. These teams are in a three-way tie with West Virginia for seventh place, which means at this point two of them would get next Tuesday off and one would have to play. West Virginia is in the worst position, having lost to each of the other two teams. But today's winner will earn the tiebreaker over the loser, putting them in the best position to earn a first-round bye.
Overall, it's a bigger game for Cincinnati, since Syracuse is probably getting into the NCAA tournament no matter what happens the rest of the way while the Bearcats have a case still to make. Enjoy it, folks, and Happy March. The Ohio Valley Conference tournament starts in just two days...
Showing posts with label Syracuse. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Syracuse. Show all posts
Sunday, March 1, 2009
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Saturday Preview -- The Syracuse Game
Did I ever tell you how I feel about Syracuse?
The Syracuse game, every year, reminds me why it's a bad idea to root for teams. I've given up all of my childhood sports-fan allegiances (largely because I became a professional sportswriter and sort of had to), but I remain a depressingly devoted fan of my alma mater's men's basketball team, and once or twice (or sometimes three times) a year the Syracuse game reminds me why I enjoy sports so much more when I can just watch games and not care who wins.
The past two years, Georgetown was the clearly superior team -- a No. 2 seed in the NCAAs each year, a Final Four team in one of them -- and went up to Syracuse and got smoked. It was depressing. It was demoralizing. It was a given.
Never has it felt more like a given than it does today. Since Georgetown beat the tangerine-colored pests in D.C. on Feb. 14, the Hoyas are 1-6, the only win coming against Rutgers. Since that day, Syracuse is 2-5, but their wins (Notre Dame and West Virginia) are more impressive. The Orange have had injuries (Rautins, Onauaku) to blame for many of their struggles, thought Jonny Flynn's crappy shooting of late hasn't helped much either.
The reasons I'm not very hopeful of an upset here are (1) Georgetown's youth, and the good chance they struggle with the insane Carrier Dome atmosphere, (2) the fact that the Hoyas haven't run their offense smoothly or effectively for more than four minutes at a time since Jan. 14 and (3) Syracuse's need to win the game.
The last point may be the most important. At 18-7 overall, 6-6 in conference, Syracuse is in good shape to make the NCAAs -- as long as they don't fall apart completely in the final month. Of the six games left on their schedule, two are pushovers (at St. John's and home against Rutgers), three are tough (at Marquette and home against Villanova and Cincinnati) and one is this rivalry game today (noon, ESPN). If they win this game today, they're pretty much guaranteed at least 21 overall wins and no worse than a 9-9 Big East record. That, in this season, is a guaranteed ticket to the Dance.
Syracuse also right now holds a shaky grip on eighth place in the conference. (They're tied with West Virginia, but beat the Mountaineers head-to-head.) This is significant, remember, because the top eight get a bye to the second round of the Big East tournament next month while teams 9-through-16 have to show up and play Tuesday. Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Providence and Seton Hall are all basically battling for the final three spots in that top eight right now.
The Hoyas are obviously in much worse shape. At 13-9 overall, 4-7 Big East, they need a 5-2 finish just to get to .500 entering the conference tournament. With Marquette, Louisville and a trip to Villanova still on the schedule after today, that would be a tough trick even if they were playing well. And they're really, really not.
But see, here's the problem. If the Hoyas win today, then you can start to hope. You can look and say, "Well, Marquette's not playing well now, and Louisville just got smoked by Notre Dame...maybe we can pick off one of those and..."
Trouble. This is how you set yourself up for disappointment.
So yeah, I'll watch today. And I'll hope. And I'll care. And I'll desperately want them to win, and if they do I'll consider it a Happy Valentine's Day. But man, I wish I could find a way to just...not...care...about the freaking Syracuse game.
The Syracuse game, every year, reminds me why it's a bad idea to root for teams. I've given up all of my childhood sports-fan allegiances (largely because I became a professional sportswriter and sort of had to), but I remain a depressingly devoted fan of my alma mater's men's basketball team, and once or twice (or sometimes three times) a year the Syracuse game reminds me why I enjoy sports so much more when I can just watch games and not care who wins.
The past two years, Georgetown was the clearly superior team -- a No. 2 seed in the NCAAs each year, a Final Four team in one of them -- and went up to Syracuse and got smoked. It was depressing. It was demoralizing. It was a given.
Never has it felt more like a given than it does today. Since Georgetown beat the tangerine-colored pests in D.C. on Feb. 14, the Hoyas are 1-6, the only win coming against Rutgers. Since that day, Syracuse is 2-5, but their wins (Notre Dame and West Virginia) are more impressive. The Orange have had injuries (Rautins, Onauaku) to blame for many of their struggles, thought Jonny Flynn's crappy shooting of late hasn't helped much either.
The reasons I'm not very hopeful of an upset here are (1) Georgetown's youth, and the good chance they struggle with the insane Carrier Dome atmosphere, (2) the fact that the Hoyas haven't run their offense smoothly or effectively for more than four minutes at a time since Jan. 14 and (3) Syracuse's need to win the game.
The last point may be the most important. At 18-7 overall, 6-6 in conference, Syracuse is in good shape to make the NCAAs -- as long as they don't fall apart completely in the final month. Of the six games left on their schedule, two are pushovers (at St. John's and home against Rutgers), three are tough (at Marquette and home against Villanova and Cincinnati) and one is this rivalry game today (noon, ESPN). If they win this game today, they're pretty much guaranteed at least 21 overall wins and no worse than a 9-9 Big East record. That, in this season, is a guaranteed ticket to the Dance.
Syracuse also right now holds a shaky grip on eighth place in the conference. (They're tied with West Virginia, but beat the Mountaineers head-to-head.) This is significant, remember, because the top eight get a bye to the second round of the Big East tournament next month while teams 9-through-16 have to show up and play Tuesday. Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Providence and Seton Hall are all basically battling for the final three spots in that top eight right now.
The Hoyas are obviously in much worse shape. At 13-9 overall, 4-7 Big East, they need a 5-2 finish just to get to .500 entering the conference tournament. With Marquette, Louisville and a trip to Villanova still on the schedule after today, that would be a tough trick even if they were playing well. And they're really, really not.
But see, here's the problem. If the Hoyas win today, then you can start to hope. You can look and say, "Well, Marquette's not playing well now, and Louisville just got smoked by Notre Dame...maybe we can pick off one of those and..."
Trouble. This is how you set yourself up for disappointment.
So yeah, I'll watch today. And I'll hope. And I'll care. And I'll desperately want them to win, and if they do I'll consider it a Happy Valentine's Day. But man, I wish I could find a way to just...not...care...about the freaking Syracuse game.
Saturday, February 7, 2009
South Florida 57, Marquette 56? Seriously??
Incredible play by Dominique Jones to win it. Horrendous loss for Marquette. No way can you hang in the Best-Team-In-The-Conference conversation with Connecticut if you're going to go down to Tampa and lose to South Florida. UConn, in case nobody else has noticed, is a rabid steamroller right now. You think Jeff Adrien would tolerate a loss to South Florida at this point in the season?
Look, Marquette's having a great year, and surely you're allowed one bad loss. But who could have seen this coming? With 11:48 left, Jerel McNeal hit a three to tie it at 40-40, and I thought (actually said to my wife, who could care less), "Okay, here they go. This is what they did to Providence. They'll rain threes the rest of the way and win by 15."
But they didn't! They missed all their threes! They attempted seven threes the rest of the way and missed every single one of them. And as a result, they lost. Cracked Sidewalks has a brief, angry breakdown that keeps it as simple as it is -- Marquette lost this one because they couldn't hit their shots, even from the free throw line.
Good for Jones and South Florida, because everybody should get to win a big game every now and then. But for Marquette...yucko.
Saturday slate, as indicated in an earlier post, features the first of two big Villanova-Syracuse games as its highlight. I enjoyed chewing my way through the preview on Villanova by the Numbers.
We'll check in sometime Saturday, our mood of course dependent on the Hoyas' ability to get revenge against Cincinnati.
Look, Marquette's having a great year, and surely you're allowed one bad loss. But who could have seen this coming? With 11:48 left, Jerel McNeal hit a three to tie it at 40-40, and I thought (actually said to my wife, who could care less), "Okay, here they go. This is what they did to Providence. They'll rain threes the rest of the way and win by 15."
But they didn't! They missed all their threes! They attempted seven threes the rest of the way and missed every single one of them. And as a result, they lost. Cracked Sidewalks has a brief, angry breakdown that keeps it as simple as it is -- Marquette lost this one because they couldn't hit their shots, even from the free throw line.
Good for Jones and South Florida, because everybody should get to win a big game every now and then. But for Marquette...yucko.
Saturday slate, as indicated in an earlier post, features the first of two big Villanova-Syracuse games as its highlight. I enjoyed chewing my way through the preview on Villanova by the Numbers.
We'll check in sometime Saturday, our mood of course dependent on the Hoyas' ability to get revenge against Cincinnati.
Friday, February 6, 2009
The Big East "Bubble"
Seton Hall beat St. John's on Thursday night, and I can't think of a thing to say about that except that the guy, Hazell, is an animal and I'm very glad the Pirates have picked up a second and third conference win since breaking the seal against the Hoyas. I'd feel better if the second and third conference wins had come against, say, Pitt and Syracuse (especially Syracuse, come to think of it), but I'll take it.
Cruising around the webisphere, I come across ESPN's "Bubble Watch," which is a conference-by-conference look, more than a month before the Big Dance, at which teams are in, which teams are almost in and which teams have "work to do."
We scroll, as we always do, right to the Big East, where we find four teams listed as "Locks" -- no surprise, UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Marquette, the conference's well defined Top Four.
The site lists Villanova and Syracuse under "should be in," and then lists West Virginia, Georgetown, Cincinnati and Providence as teams with "work left to do."
So that's 10 total Big East teams that ESPN.com thinks have a shot at March Madness if, presumably, they all do the work they have left to do. What jumps out? Well, the fact that Notre Dame isn't one of them.
The Irish are paying the price for a six-game losing streak that stands an awfully good chance of reaching eight with their next two games against UCLA and Louisville. The streak includes no bad losses (the worst is at Cincinnati, which isn't as bad a loss as it looked like it would be a few weeks back), but the fact is that they need to win six of their final eight games to finish 9-9 in conference, and their schedule still includes Louisville, West Virginia, UConn and Villanova. This is why that loss at St. John's was so bad. The difference between a 9-9 conference record and an 8-10 conference record is huge to the selection committee, and if the Irish get hot, that loss could well be the difference.
Here's the rundown on some of the teams that DO show up on the Big East Bubble Watch:
*Villanova: "They are only 2-4 against RPI top-50 teams, and only seven of their 18 victories against Division I teams have come against RPI top-100 opponents." However, the site also points out the Wildcats' victory over Pitt as a big point in their favor and says their remaining schedule (which includes Marquette, West Virginia, Georgetown and two games against Syracuse) offers opportunities to beef up their credentials.
*Syracuse: "three very good nonconference victories (Florida and Kansas on neutral courts and at Memphis). The Orange probably could use one or two victories over the league's top five RPI teams to improve their seeding. They will have a chance to do that the next two weeks, when they play Villanova (twice), at Connecticut and home against Georgetown." Doesn't that last bit make you think that, if either Syracuse or Nova sweeps the other, one of those teams moves a lot closer to the wrong side of the bubble?
*West Virginia: "The Mountaineers bring a couple of decent nonconference wins (road victories at Ole Miss and Ohio State) and a win at Georgetown to the table, but they might need another signature victory to feel safe." They still have road games at Pitt and Cincinnati and home games against Villanova and Louisville, but they could lose all four of those and still finish .500 in the conference. If they win one of them, they're probably getting in.
*Mighty Hoyas: "it might take a complete collapse for the Hoyas not to receive an at-large bid. They have victories over Memphis, Connecticut and Syracuse, and are playing the country's third-toughest schedule." Fair enough, but does anybody else fear a "complete collapse" might be underway? Five straight losses and a shaky home win against Rutgers does not inspire confidence. I'd like to see them pick up one or two more "big" wins (say, home against Marquette or at Villanova, something like that) before I start feeling good. Mainly, though, I just want them to beat Cincinnati tomorrow and look awesome doing it. It's been a real long time since they looked awesome.
*Cincinnati: "Cincinnati has a couple of so-so nonconference victories (UAB and UNLV) and beat Georgetown at home. But the Bearcats probably need to finish better than .500 in Big East play to garner serious consideration." Can they do it? They're 5-5 right now with road games remaining at Georgetown, Pitt, Syracuse and South Florida and home games against St. John's, Louisville, West Virginia and Seton Hall. I say that's three they should win, three they should lose and two toss-ups (at Georgetown and home to West Virginia). So if they can complete the season sweep of the Hoyas tomorrow afternoon, they're set up with a good chance.
*Providence: "they might need a 10-6 finish to secure an at-large bid. They won't bring a single quality nonconference victory to the table...The Friars missed a big chance to make a statement by losing to Villanova 94-91 on Wednesday night." Anybody who's been following this blog (are you out there?) knows we love Providence. The Syracuse win was huge for them, but they've dumped a couple in a row now to UConn and Villanova and they've allowed exactly 94 points in each of their last three games (and 93 in the one before that!) The Friars will have to play over their heads the rest of the way to have a shot. They're 6-4, so they must finish 4-2 to hit that 10-6 mark. That means winning two of four very tough games -- at West Virginia, at Louisville, at Villanova and home against Pitt -- and not slipping up anywhere else.
Marquette travels to South Florida tonight for what should be a shutout, then we get a six-game Saturday slate whose highlight is the first of those Syracuse-Nova matchups. We'll watch that one as long as we can get the ESPN360 working and keep one eye on those Mighty Hoyas...
Cruising around the webisphere, I come across ESPN's "Bubble Watch," which is a conference-by-conference look, more than a month before the Big Dance, at which teams are in, which teams are almost in and which teams have "work to do."
We scroll, as we always do, right to the Big East, where we find four teams listed as "Locks" -- no surprise, UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Marquette, the conference's well defined Top Four.
The site lists Villanova and Syracuse under "should be in," and then lists West Virginia, Georgetown, Cincinnati and Providence as teams with "work left to do."
So that's 10 total Big East teams that ESPN.com thinks have a shot at March Madness if, presumably, they all do the work they have left to do. What jumps out? Well, the fact that Notre Dame isn't one of them.
The Irish are paying the price for a six-game losing streak that stands an awfully good chance of reaching eight with their next two games against UCLA and Louisville. The streak includes no bad losses (the worst is at Cincinnati, which isn't as bad a loss as it looked like it would be a few weeks back), but the fact is that they need to win six of their final eight games to finish 9-9 in conference, and their schedule still includes Louisville, West Virginia, UConn and Villanova. This is why that loss at St. John's was so bad. The difference between a 9-9 conference record and an 8-10 conference record is huge to the selection committee, and if the Irish get hot, that loss could well be the difference.
Here's the rundown on some of the teams that DO show up on the Big East Bubble Watch:
*Villanova: "They are only 2-4 against RPI top-50 teams, and only seven of their 18 victories against Division I teams have come against RPI top-100 opponents." However, the site also points out the Wildcats' victory over Pitt as a big point in their favor and says their remaining schedule (which includes Marquette, West Virginia, Georgetown and two games against Syracuse) offers opportunities to beef up their credentials.
*Syracuse: "three very good nonconference victories (Florida and Kansas on neutral courts and at Memphis). The Orange probably could use one or two victories over the league's top five RPI teams to improve their seeding. They will have a chance to do that the next two weeks, when they play Villanova (twice), at Connecticut and home against Georgetown." Doesn't that last bit make you think that, if either Syracuse or Nova sweeps the other, one of those teams moves a lot closer to the wrong side of the bubble?
*West Virginia: "The Mountaineers bring a couple of decent nonconference wins (road victories at Ole Miss and Ohio State) and a win at Georgetown to the table, but they might need another signature victory to feel safe." They still have road games at Pitt and Cincinnati and home games against Villanova and Louisville, but they could lose all four of those and still finish .500 in the conference. If they win one of them, they're probably getting in.
*Mighty Hoyas: "it might take a complete collapse for the Hoyas not to receive an at-large bid. They have victories over Memphis, Connecticut and Syracuse, and are playing the country's third-toughest schedule." Fair enough, but does anybody else fear a "complete collapse" might be underway? Five straight losses and a shaky home win against Rutgers does not inspire confidence. I'd like to see them pick up one or two more "big" wins (say, home against Marquette or at Villanova, something like that) before I start feeling good. Mainly, though, I just want them to beat Cincinnati tomorrow and look awesome doing it. It's been a real long time since they looked awesome.
*Cincinnati: "Cincinnati has a couple of so-so nonconference victories (UAB and UNLV) and beat Georgetown at home. But the Bearcats probably need to finish better than .500 in Big East play to garner serious consideration." Can they do it? They're 5-5 right now with road games remaining at Georgetown, Pitt, Syracuse and South Florida and home games against St. John's, Louisville, West Virginia and Seton Hall. I say that's three they should win, three they should lose and two toss-ups (at Georgetown and home to West Virginia). So if they can complete the season sweep of the Hoyas tomorrow afternoon, they're set up with a good chance.
*Providence: "they might need a 10-6 finish to secure an at-large bid. They won't bring a single quality nonconference victory to the table...The Friars missed a big chance to make a statement by losing to Villanova 94-91 on Wednesday night." Anybody who's been following this blog (are you out there?) knows we love Providence. The Syracuse win was huge for them, but they've dumped a couple in a row now to UConn and Villanova and they've allowed exactly 94 points in each of their last three games (and 93 in the one before that!) The Friars will have to play over their heads the rest of the way to have a shot. They're 6-4, so they must finish 4-2 to hit that 10-6 mark. That means winning two of four very tough games -- at West Virginia, at Louisville, at Villanova and home against Pitt -- and not slipping up anywhere else.
Marquette travels to South Florida tonight for what should be a shutout, then we get a six-game Saturday slate whose highlight is the first of those Syracuse-Nova matchups. We'll watch that one as long as we can get the ESPN360 working and keep one eye on those Mighty Hoyas...
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Wednesday Wonderings
Six games in the conference tonight, but not too many compelling matchups. Pitt at Villanova looks like the best one, though I am curious to see if Providence can finally pick up a quality win as they host Syracuse. (Regular readers know we here at RCR are always on the lookout for something bad happening to Syracuse.)
So, a couple of random notes on a snowy Wednesday morning here in NJ. (Kids are home from school -- yippee!!)
-Cracked Sidewalks points out two interesting things about Marquette's win at Notre Dame on Monday night. First, it was apparently the eighth anniversary of Al McGuire's death (which doesn't seem that long ago). Second, only four players scored points for Marquette in the game. That's right. They scored 71 points, and the only ones who scored were Jerel McNeal (27), Dominic James (15), Wes Mathews (16) and Lazar Heyward (13).
And they say Georgetown's not deep!
Seriously, though, you can get away with a lack of depth when your best four players are this good. I still think Marquette will lose a game here at some point. Once they stop playing DePaul every other game, maybe. Somebody will be able to out-physical them inside. Their guards will have a cold shooting night. Their schedule has been relatively soft so far, and their final five games at at Georgetown/UConn/at Louisville/at Pitt/Syracuse. So they will be tested. But they are good, and the ND win proves it. Even if it was a four-man effort.
-Our fighting Hoyas do need a win tonight at Cincinnati. Can't go to Marquette on Saturday with a four-game losing streak. Something needs to happen to stem the feel of a free-fall and avoid a situation like the one in which Notre Dame now finds itself. I'm among those who would like to see more of Henry Sims, if for no other reason than to help with the horrendous rebounding problems. (Though I do feel like this could be a case of the most popular player in town always being the backup quarterback.) GU will need some size and toughness inside to combat Mike Williams and Yancey Gates tonight, and if they get pushed around early (and they keep chunking those three-point bricks), I fear a disaster.
-The key for Villanova is always Scotty Reynolds, but I think the key tonight, if they're to have a chance against Pitt, is going to be Dante Cunningham. They'll have to do something to keep the Panthers honest inside, and Cunningham's energetic play last week in the first half was a huge reason the Wildcats were able to hang in the way they did against Connecticut.
That's just off the top of my head in the morning, with the kids screaming their heads off. Maybe I'll check back later.
So, a couple of random notes on a snowy Wednesday morning here in NJ. (Kids are home from school -- yippee!!)
-Cracked Sidewalks points out two interesting things about Marquette's win at Notre Dame on Monday night. First, it was apparently the eighth anniversary of Al McGuire's death (which doesn't seem that long ago). Second, only four players scored points for Marquette in the game. That's right. They scored 71 points, and the only ones who scored were Jerel McNeal (27), Dominic James (15), Wes Mathews (16) and Lazar Heyward (13).
And they say Georgetown's not deep!
Seriously, though, you can get away with a lack of depth when your best four players are this good. I still think Marquette will lose a game here at some point. Once they stop playing DePaul every other game, maybe. Somebody will be able to out-physical them inside. Their guards will have a cold shooting night. Their schedule has been relatively soft so far, and their final five games at at Georgetown/UConn/at Louisville/at Pitt/Syracuse. So they will be tested. But they are good, and the ND win proves it. Even if it was a four-man effort.
-Our fighting Hoyas do need a win tonight at Cincinnati. Can't go to Marquette on Saturday with a four-game losing streak. Something needs to happen to stem the feel of a free-fall and avoid a situation like the one in which Notre Dame now finds itself. I'm among those who would like to see more of Henry Sims, if for no other reason than to help with the horrendous rebounding problems. (Though I do feel like this could be a case of the most popular player in town always being the backup quarterback.) GU will need some size and toughness inside to combat Mike Williams and Yancey Gates tonight, and if they get pushed around early (and they keep chunking those three-point bricks), I fear a disaster.
-The key for Villanova is always Scotty Reynolds, but I think the key tonight, if they're to have a chance against Pitt, is going to be Dante Cunningham. They'll have to do something to keep the Panthers honest inside, and Cunningham's energetic play last week in the first half was a huge reason the Wildcats were able to hang in the way they did against Connecticut.
That's just off the top of my head in the morning, with the kids screaming their heads off. Maybe I'll check back later.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Pitt 78, Syracuse 60
Never gets old, really. I could watch Syracuse lose at anything. Basketball, football, lacrosse ("Lacrosse, Liz Lemon!"), chess...anything.
But on to the larger point, which is Pitt. Syracuse has a fine little orange team this year, but it's simply not equipped to beat Pitt at Pitt. Even among the great teams in this conference in this great year, there are mismatches, and this game was one of them.
The amazing thing is, Syracuse has a cat that can actually play DeJuan Blair. Arinze Onuaku is as like Blair as anybody in the conference. (With the possible exception of Jeff Adrien, who scares the hell out of me. He might even scare DeJuan Blair -- I haven't had the chance to ask.) He's big and physical down low and plays with a lot of Blair's toughness and (on defense, at least) nose for the ball.
But Blair is so much more than big and tough. He's got post moves. He's got energy. He plays with the fluidity of a swing-forward. He can hit a jump shot, for goodness' sake.
And he's got that smile, which sounds like a corny thing to say but actually does matter. It's all part of his on-court persona, which is about emitting the very clear impression that he's got it all under control. The expression on his face when Onuaku shoved him out of bounds under the basket after a rebound and got teed up for it late in the first half was downright whimsical -- as if to say, "Yeah, I got you, man. You got the ball this time, but I got you."
Blair's an elite player -- the kind of player a team like Pitt needs to ascend to real Final Four contention. But one of the best things about Pitt is that, even if a guy like Onuaku plays some fantastic game and somehow neutralizes Blair, you still have to contain Sam Young. And Syracuse could not.
Pitt needs to watch those free throws -- that was scary bad in the first half -- but they have a lot going for them, not the least of which is a little bit of perimeter defense. Rautins and Flynn of Cuse were a combined 9-for-30 in this game, which is horrendous. I mean, unless you really, really don't like Syracuse.
Just sayin'.
*One other point: This game says a lot about Louisville, which didn't play in it. Pitt is excellent at wearing down an opponent. They are big, tough and physical, and they're in great shape. They can physically outlast people. And Louisville physically outlasted them on Sunday night. Yes, I still would have liked to see the Pitt-Louisville game with Blair in it the whole way (instead of limited to 20 minutes due to foul trouble), but the fact remains that Louisville is scary as hell, and as dangerous as any team in here if it's getting its collective head together/ass in gear. Which it appears it is.
*Miscellaneous crap: Providence held off Cincinnati in a somewhat meaningless Bottom Seven affair. It'd be totally meaningless except I can't seem to quit Providence. I still think they have a little run, or at least an upset or two in them. But watching them gag away that game to Marquette on Saturday shook me up, and if they'd gone out tonight and lost to freaking Cincinnati, I'd have probably given up my mild but admittedly inexplicable fascination with them.
*Upcoming: The only game on the Big East schedule Tuesday is DePaul-South Florida, which is probably going to be a strong candidate for Worst Big East Game of the Year. The only interesting storyline is whether DePaul can actually win a conference game this year. This offers some semblance of an opportunity, though I wouldn't run out and bet it. The game is on ESPNU, so I may actually watch some of it. Yeah, that's right. That's how sick I am.
*Upcoming Wednesday: Villanova at UConn, Louisville at Rutgers. The former is the obviously better matchup, but I am curious to see if Louisville has any kind of hangover after the big win Sunday. They seem like a hangover-type of team, and not just because that mascot of theirs is always lying down next to the court. We've still had only one bad in-conference loss (meaning: a loss by one of the top nine to one of the bottom seven -- in this case, Notre Dame at St. John's on Jan. 3), so we're ever on the lookout. The Scarlet Knights get the next crack at it, and they'll have their undersized hands full.
But on to the larger point, which is Pitt. Syracuse has a fine little orange team this year, but it's simply not equipped to beat Pitt at Pitt. Even among the great teams in this conference in this great year, there are mismatches, and this game was one of them.
The amazing thing is, Syracuse has a cat that can actually play DeJuan Blair. Arinze Onuaku is as like Blair as anybody in the conference. (With the possible exception of Jeff Adrien, who scares the hell out of me. He might even scare DeJuan Blair -- I haven't had the chance to ask.) He's big and physical down low and plays with a lot of Blair's toughness and (on defense, at least) nose for the ball.
But Blair is so much more than big and tough. He's got post moves. He's got energy. He plays with the fluidity of a swing-forward. He can hit a jump shot, for goodness' sake.
And he's got that smile, which sounds like a corny thing to say but actually does matter. It's all part of his on-court persona, which is about emitting the very clear impression that he's got it all under control. The expression on his face when Onuaku shoved him out of bounds under the basket after a rebound and got teed up for it late in the first half was downright whimsical -- as if to say, "Yeah, I got you, man. You got the ball this time, but I got you."
Blair's an elite player -- the kind of player a team like Pitt needs to ascend to real Final Four contention. But one of the best things about Pitt is that, even if a guy like Onuaku plays some fantastic game and somehow neutralizes Blair, you still have to contain Sam Young. And Syracuse could not.
Pitt needs to watch those free throws -- that was scary bad in the first half -- but they have a lot going for them, not the least of which is a little bit of perimeter defense. Rautins and Flynn of Cuse were a combined 9-for-30 in this game, which is horrendous. I mean, unless you really, really don't like Syracuse.
Just sayin'.
*One other point: This game says a lot about Louisville, which didn't play in it. Pitt is excellent at wearing down an opponent. They are big, tough and physical, and they're in great shape. They can physically outlast people. And Louisville physically outlasted them on Sunday night. Yes, I still would have liked to see the Pitt-Louisville game with Blair in it the whole way (instead of limited to 20 minutes due to foul trouble), but the fact remains that Louisville is scary as hell, and as dangerous as any team in here if it's getting its collective head together/ass in gear. Which it appears it is.
*Miscellaneous crap: Providence held off Cincinnati in a somewhat meaningless Bottom Seven affair. It'd be totally meaningless except I can't seem to quit Providence. I still think they have a little run, or at least an upset or two in them. But watching them gag away that game to Marquette on Saturday shook me up, and if they'd gone out tonight and lost to freaking Cincinnati, I'd have probably given up my mild but admittedly inexplicable fascination with them.
*Upcoming: The only game on the Big East schedule Tuesday is DePaul-South Florida, which is probably going to be a strong candidate for Worst Big East Game of the Year. The only interesting storyline is whether DePaul can actually win a conference game this year. This offers some semblance of an opportunity, though I wouldn't run out and bet it. The game is on ESPNU, so I may actually watch some of it. Yeah, that's right. That's how sick I am.
*Upcoming Wednesday: Villanova at UConn, Louisville at Rutgers. The former is the obviously better matchup, but I am curious to see if Louisville has any kind of hangover after the big win Sunday. They seem like a hangover-type of team, and not just because that mascot of theirs is always lying down next to the court. We've still had only one bad in-conference loss (meaning: a loss by one of the top nine to one of the bottom seven -- in this case, Notre Dame at St. John's on Jan. 3), so we're ever on the lookout. The Scarlet Knights get the next crack at it, and they'll have their undersized hands full.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Saturday Preview -- Games Big and Small
While passing the jittery, excited time remaining before the Friday Night Lights premiere for non-DirecTV subscribers, I figured a primer on the six Saturday Big East games might be a cool distraction. I came to this after evaluating several other options:
1. Going for a run. (It's 11 degrees.)
2. Going to the gym. (Later, when it's 3:00 and nobody's there. I promise.)
3. Updating my new baseball blog, nybaseballhack.blogspot.com. (Shameless plug.)
4. Eating lunch. (Though, I could eat while typing, and you'd never know...)
5. Looking for a new job. (There aren't any, which is why this blog exists.)
So here are six thumbnails, each of which includes a brief RCR preview along with a Ken Pomeroy rankings comparison of the teams involved. The games are ranked in order of their importance/slash level of interest to this blog, which admits to a bias:
Georgetown at Duke, 1:30 pm, CBS
Pomeroy Prediction: Duke(1) 71, Georgetown(4) 64
RCR's Take: The Hoyas spent the first half Wednesday night shooting over Syracuse's zone. Saturday, they'll have a much harder time in the face of Duke's perimeter pressure. This will be more like the defense they faced last Saturday against Providence, only...you know...a lot better. For Georgetown to win, they'll need to be able to move the ball inside and out, to and from Greg Monroe, whose inside presence is one of the few advantages the Hoyas have and whose passing ability might be the only way to free up the guards for the outside shots. Also, it wouldn't hurt if a massive flu bug hit the Duke campus tonight and kept the crowd to a minimum...
PREDICTION: I fear a game somewhat like the Tennessee game, where the Hoyas played well, especially on defense, but Tennessee hit everything in sight. I don't foresee the Duke pressure rattling the GU guards, but I think the crowd and the Blue Devils' depth will wear down Georgetown in the second half. Duke 79, Georgetown 68.
Pittsburgh at Louisville, 6 pm, ESPN
Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville(14) 66, Pittsburgh(5) 65
RCR's Take: Those who've been reading know I like Pitt a lot and I'm not sold on Louisville, but the Cardinals showed depth, strength and toughness earlier this week against Notre Dame, and they are the home team. And Pomeroy picks an upset against his own rankings. Is it possible? Sure, if Louisville's zone disrupts Pitt's ability to feed the ball to DeJuan Blair inside. And if Samardo Samuels can rebound enough to limit Blair's second-chance points. And if the Pitt players are distracted, as I always am, by the shockingly recumbent Louisville mascot. (Seriously! He just sits there in that corner all game!!)
PREDICTION: It's Pitt's first real test since taking over No. 1. Louisville is feeling good about some recent escapes. It all points red. But I'm not buying it. For me, even if Samuels and contain Blair, somebody's got to contain Sam Young, and I don't think Earl Clark has it in him to do that for 40 minutes. Pitt 62, Louisville 57.
Notre Dame at Syracuse, Noon, ESPN
Pomeroy Prediction: Syracuse(32) 86, Notre Dame(42) 79
RCR's Take: First, wow. Look how low Pomeroy has these two teams. He was forecasting an easy victory for Georgetown over Syracuse on Wednesday, and why not? The Hoyas were the home team, ranked in his top 5, while the Orange were sitting there on his NCAA tournament bubble. Looking at his Syracuse page, it appears the Orange lose massive points because they turn the ball over too much and don't hit free throws. But that's not likely to matter against a Notre Dame team that plays no defense. Syracuse's best bet is to do what they can against Harangody inside but not get down once he starts hitting those zany fall-away hook shots from six feet. There's nothing you can do about that. Play your zone, drive their guards crazy, get back down the other end of the floor and score those easy buckets Notre Dame is going to be giving you all day.
Prediction: I'd love to pick against Syracuse, because I'd love it if Syracuse lost all of their games. But I can't do it here. Not at home. Not against the softest good team in the conference. Notre Dame doesn't play defense. Won't play defense. Looks for all the world as if it doesn't consider defense an important part of the game. If he's really, really on, Jonny Flynn could have a Jodie Meeks-level offensive performance against Notre Dame. Syracuse gets the taste of the GU game out of its mouth in a hurry. Syracuse 90, Notre Dame 75.
Marquette at Providence, 9 pm, ESPN2
Pomeroy Prediction: Marquette(22) 81, Providence(78) 76
RCR's Take: RCR is staying up to watch this game. I love the Marquette guards but haven't had the chance to watch them play a whole game yet. I love Providence's experience and toughness. There are going to be seniors all over the court in this game, and I think it's a good candidate to be Providence's first "surprise" win of the season. Remember, so far this year, the only Top 9 Big East team to lose to one of the league's bottom-tier teams is Notre Dame, which fell at St. John's a couple of weeks back. If Marquette can shoot the ball and contain Efejuku, they'll come away with a win about which they can feel really good. Because if there's a team in that bottom tier that's going to sneak up and challenge the Top 9, Providence is it.
Prediction: I've been thinking over the past week that Marquette might be my pick to win the conference. They have a chance to show something here, and if they win easily, I'll drive the bandwagon. But I just have this feeling. Late game, far from home, outmanned inside...I see somebody in black and white going off and having a big game. Providence 78, Marquette 77.
South Florida at West Virginia, Noon, ESPN Full Court
Pomeroy Prediction: West Virginia(7) 71, South Florida (105) 53
RCR's Take: Pomeroy has the Mountaineers seventh in the country, but they're 1-2 in conference following losses to UConn and at Marquette. They rebound the ball well, especially on offense. They force turnovers. They have a big man in DeSean Butler and a shooter in Alex Ruoff who are just going to be way too much for an undersized, undermanned Bulls team that's leaving sunny Tampa for a frigid trip north.
Prediction: West Virginia is dying for an easy conference win, and they'll get it against a South Florida team that won't be able to touch them on the boards. West Virginia 79, South Florida 60.
Cincinnati at DePaul, 2 pm, ESPNU
Pomeroy Prediction: Cincinnati(86) 71, DePaul(181) 67
RCR's Take: It's a testament to how good the Big East is that this game would be on ESPNU, a channel you can actually get nationally. Um, let's see...Cincy is a strong offensive rebounding team, thanks mainly to freshman Yancy Gates. He, Mike Williams and Rashad Bishop form a fairly impressive front line that might be able to win some games in a different conference. DePaul can't shoot from anywhere, doesn't rebound especially well, misses free throws...they're a bottom of the Big East barrel team that's facing a rare chance to pick up a conference win. In fact, a look at the remaining schedules indicates that these two teams are going to be sorry to see each other go.
Prediction: Pomeroy's projecting a total of two wins the rest of the way for these two teams combined. And it's not one each. Cincinnati 80, DePaul 65
1. Going for a run. (It's 11 degrees.)
2. Going to the gym. (Later, when it's 3:00 and nobody's there. I promise.)
3. Updating my new baseball blog, nybaseballhack.blogspot.com. (Shameless plug.)
4. Eating lunch. (Though, I could eat while typing, and you'd never know...)
5. Looking for a new job. (There aren't any, which is why this blog exists.)
So here are six thumbnails, each of which includes a brief RCR preview along with a Ken Pomeroy rankings comparison of the teams involved. The games are ranked in order of their importance/slash level of interest to this blog, which admits to a bias:
Georgetown at Duke, 1:30 pm, CBS
Pomeroy Prediction: Duke(1) 71, Georgetown(4) 64
RCR's Take: The Hoyas spent the first half Wednesday night shooting over Syracuse's zone. Saturday, they'll have a much harder time in the face of Duke's perimeter pressure. This will be more like the defense they faced last Saturday against Providence, only...you know...a lot better. For Georgetown to win, they'll need to be able to move the ball inside and out, to and from Greg Monroe, whose inside presence is one of the few advantages the Hoyas have and whose passing ability might be the only way to free up the guards for the outside shots. Also, it wouldn't hurt if a massive flu bug hit the Duke campus tonight and kept the crowd to a minimum...
PREDICTION: I fear a game somewhat like the Tennessee game, where the Hoyas played well, especially on defense, but Tennessee hit everything in sight. I don't foresee the Duke pressure rattling the GU guards, but I think the crowd and the Blue Devils' depth will wear down Georgetown in the second half. Duke 79, Georgetown 68.
Pittsburgh at Louisville, 6 pm, ESPN
Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville(14) 66, Pittsburgh(5) 65
RCR's Take: Those who've been reading know I like Pitt a lot and I'm not sold on Louisville, but the Cardinals showed depth, strength and toughness earlier this week against Notre Dame, and they are the home team. And Pomeroy picks an upset against his own rankings. Is it possible? Sure, if Louisville's zone disrupts Pitt's ability to feed the ball to DeJuan Blair inside. And if Samardo Samuels can rebound enough to limit Blair's second-chance points. And if the Pitt players are distracted, as I always am, by the shockingly recumbent Louisville mascot. (Seriously! He just sits there in that corner all game!!)
PREDICTION: It's Pitt's first real test since taking over No. 1. Louisville is feeling good about some recent escapes. It all points red. But I'm not buying it. For me, even if Samuels and contain Blair, somebody's got to contain Sam Young, and I don't think Earl Clark has it in him to do that for 40 minutes. Pitt 62, Louisville 57.
Notre Dame at Syracuse, Noon, ESPN
Pomeroy Prediction: Syracuse(32) 86, Notre Dame(42) 79
RCR's Take: First, wow. Look how low Pomeroy has these two teams. He was forecasting an easy victory for Georgetown over Syracuse on Wednesday, and why not? The Hoyas were the home team, ranked in his top 5, while the Orange were sitting there on his NCAA tournament bubble. Looking at his Syracuse page, it appears the Orange lose massive points because they turn the ball over too much and don't hit free throws. But that's not likely to matter against a Notre Dame team that plays no defense. Syracuse's best bet is to do what they can against Harangody inside but not get down once he starts hitting those zany fall-away hook shots from six feet. There's nothing you can do about that. Play your zone, drive their guards crazy, get back down the other end of the floor and score those easy buckets Notre Dame is going to be giving you all day.
Prediction: I'd love to pick against Syracuse, because I'd love it if Syracuse lost all of their games. But I can't do it here. Not at home. Not against the softest good team in the conference. Notre Dame doesn't play defense. Won't play defense. Looks for all the world as if it doesn't consider defense an important part of the game. If he's really, really on, Jonny Flynn could have a Jodie Meeks-level offensive performance against Notre Dame. Syracuse gets the taste of the GU game out of its mouth in a hurry. Syracuse 90, Notre Dame 75.
Marquette at Providence, 9 pm, ESPN2
Pomeroy Prediction: Marquette(22) 81, Providence(78) 76
RCR's Take: RCR is staying up to watch this game. I love the Marquette guards but haven't had the chance to watch them play a whole game yet. I love Providence's experience and toughness. There are going to be seniors all over the court in this game, and I think it's a good candidate to be Providence's first "surprise" win of the season. Remember, so far this year, the only Top 9 Big East team to lose to one of the league's bottom-tier teams is Notre Dame, which fell at St. John's a couple of weeks back. If Marquette can shoot the ball and contain Efejuku, they'll come away with a win about which they can feel really good. Because if there's a team in that bottom tier that's going to sneak up and challenge the Top 9, Providence is it.
Prediction: I've been thinking over the past week that Marquette might be my pick to win the conference. They have a chance to show something here, and if they win easily, I'll drive the bandwagon. But I just have this feeling. Late game, far from home, outmanned inside...I see somebody in black and white going off and having a big game. Providence 78, Marquette 77.
South Florida at West Virginia, Noon, ESPN Full Court
Pomeroy Prediction: West Virginia(7) 71, South Florida (105) 53
RCR's Take: Pomeroy has the Mountaineers seventh in the country, but they're 1-2 in conference following losses to UConn and at Marquette. They rebound the ball well, especially on offense. They force turnovers. They have a big man in DeSean Butler and a shooter in Alex Ruoff who are just going to be way too much for an undersized, undermanned Bulls team that's leaving sunny Tampa for a frigid trip north.
Prediction: West Virginia is dying for an easy conference win, and they'll get it against a South Florida team that won't be able to touch them on the boards. West Virginia 79, South Florida 60.
Cincinnati at DePaul, 2 pm, ESPNU
Pomeroy Prediction: Cincinnati(86) 71, DePaul(181) 67
RCR's Take: It's a testament to how good the Big East is that this game would be on ESPNU, a channel you can actually get nationally. Um, let's see...Cincy is a strong offensive rebounding team, thanks mainly to freshman Yancy Gates. He, Mike Williams and Rashad Bishop form a fairly impressive front line that might be able to win some games in a different conference. DePaul can't shoot from anywhere, doesn't rebound especially well, misses free throws...they're a bottom of the Big East barrel team that's facing a rare chance to pick up a conference win. In fact, a look at the remaining schedules indicates that these two teams are going to be sorry to see each other go.
Prediction: Pomeroy's projecting a total of two wins the rest of the way for these two teams combined. And it's not one each. Cincinnati 80, DePaul 65
Monday, January 12, 2009
Weekend Recap -- Still not buying Louisville
I mean, right? They tried to give that game to Villanova about 17 different times in the final minute, and Nova just wouldn't take it. Missed free throws, missed put-backs...So many chances to make the Cardinals pay for the loose, lackadaiscial way they play the game, and yet they come away losers, just as Kentucky did a week earlier after coming back when L'ville refused to close them out.
I guess you could say you should give Louisville credit for winning these games when they're obviously not playing as well as they should be playing. But I don't think a team deserves credit when it's not playing as well as it should be playing. I think Louisville should be expected to play better than they are. I think Pitino should have more control over his team and the on-court decisions he makes than he does.
I think Louisville is going to get beaten a few times this year when it shouldn't. I think they should be able to hold or build on leads in the second half, and I don't like the body language of their players when it does start to slip away -- as if they're annoyed and tired instead of angry and determined.
Villanova by the Numbers has a stat breakdown that shows how the Wildcats hung right with the Cardinals in "athletic" stats like steals and blocks, and how they were able to erase Louisville's shooting advantage in the second half.
Maybe I'm making too much of this. It was, after all, a road win in the conference. The conference's top teams are basically doing what they're supposed to do. Pitt, Marquette, Syracuse and UConn all rolled this weekend. Georgetown looked sluggish early but came back behind Greg Monroe to handle Providence.
The conference's "Power Nine" have a combined eight losses. Of those, only Notre Dame's loss at St. John's qualifies as a bad loss.
Villanova's losses are home to Louisville and at Marquette. Georgetown's are home to Pitt and at Notre Dame. West Virginia's are home to UConn and at Marquette. UConn lost at home to Georgetown.
So far, it's been about taking care of business, which in the end is what Louisville did, no matter how shaky they looked at the end.
Right now, the best team in the conference is Pitt, but I sure wish they played Marquette before March 4, because I'm starting to wonder if the best team in the conference might be Marquette, and I'd like to know.
(And yes, I know it could be Syracuse, but we here at RCR are choosing not to acknowledge that horrifying possibility until we absolutely have to -- like, February 15, earliest.)
Tonight is Notre Dame at Louisville. If I were a betting man I'd bet the over, because neither one of these teams likes playing defense very much. I say Harangody takes down the Cardinals on the road with some help from the perimeter, where the Irish should outwit, out-hustle and out-shoot the home team. Louisville should be able to out-athlete them, but to do that they'll have to maintain their focus for 40 full minutes. And from what I've seen this year, they don't.
I guess you could say you should give Louisville credit for winning these games when they're obviously not playing as well as they should be playing. But I don't think a team deserves credit when it's not playing as well as it should be playing. I think Louisville should be expected to play better than they are. I think Pitino should have more control over his team and the on-court decisions he makes than he does.
I think Louisville is going to get beaten a few times this year when it shouldn't. I think they should be able to hold or build on leads in the second half, and I don't like the body language of their players when it does start to slip away -- as if they're annoyed and tired instead of angry and determined.
Villanova by the Numbers has a stat breakdown that shows how the Wildcats hung right with the Cardinals in "athletic" stats like steals and blocks, and how they were able to erase Louisville's shooting advantage in the second half.
Maybe I'm making too much of this. It was, after all, a road win in the conference. The conference's top teams are basically doing what they're supposed to do. Pitt, Marquette, Syracuse and UConn all rolled this weekend. Georgetown looked sluggish early but came back behind Greg Monroe to handle Providence.
The conference's "Power Nine" have a combined eight losses. Of those, only Notre Dame's loss at St. John's qualifies as a bad loss.
Villanova's losses are home to Louisville and at Marquette. Georgetown's are home to Pitt and at Notre Dame. West Virginia's are home to UConn and at Marquette. UConn lost at home to Georgetown.
So far, it's been about taking care of business, which in the end is what Louisville did, no matter how shaky they looked at the end.
Right now, the best team in the conference is Pitt, but I sure wish they played Marquette before March 4, because I'm starting to wonder if the best team in the conference might be Marquette, and I'd like to know.
(And yes, I know it could be Syracuse, but we here at RCR are choosing not to acknowledge that horrifying possibility until we absolutely have to -- like, February 15, earliest.)
Tonight is Notre Dame at Louisville. If I were a betting man I'd bet the over, because neither one of these teams likes playing defense very much. I say Harangody takes down the Cardinals on the road with some help from the perimeter, where the Irish should outwit, out-hustle and out-shoot the home team. Louisville should be able to out-athlete them, but to do that they'll have to maintain their focus for 40 full minutes. And from what I've seen this year, they don't.
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