Wow. I mean, it was 67-65 at one point. But when you get EVERY SINGLE REBOUND FOR 10 MINUTES, you tend to pull away.
This result, combined with Louisville's thrashing of Seton Hall, means a lot of things:
-If Louisville wins at West Virginia on Saturday AND UConn loses at Pitt on Saturday, Louisville is the regular-season conference champion and No. 1 seed in the Big East tournament.
(-In that scenario, UConn (currently the No. 1 team in the country), would finish THIRD in the Big East, since they'd have lost two games and therefore the tiebreaker to Pitt.)
-If Louisville loses at West Virginia on Saturday and UConn loses at Pitt, I think Pitt is the No. 1 seed, but they'd all three be tied, and truly, I'm not sure what that means. More research is needed.
-If UConn wins at Pitt, they are the No. 1 seed and regular-season champ, no questions asked.
-Pitt is guaranteed a two-round bye, and along with UConn and Louisville won't have to play until the Thursday quarterfinals at the Garden.
-Marquette and Villanova are tied for fourth, and Nova holds the tiebreaker edge on Marquette. Which means, if Villanova beats Providence at home Thursday night OR Marquette loses at home to Syracuse on Saturday, then Nova gets the No. 4 seed and the two-round bye, and Marquette would finish fifth and have to play on Wednesday.
-Also tonight, DePaul lost to fall to 0-17. One game left to avoid the historic bagel. Guess where it is? That's right. At Georgetown.
Of COURSE I'm worried! How could you not be?
Showing posts with label Louisville. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Louisville. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Sunday, March 1, 2009
Sunday Look-Ahead
Four games of some import on the Big East sked today. Rankings-wise, the biggest appears to be No. 10 Marquette at No. 6 Louisville. And as far as quality basketball goes, this should be the best game. But Marquette has to still be reeling from the loss of Dominic James, while Louisville still has hopes of overtaking UConn for the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.
By the way, I know Villanova's inexplicable loss yesterday clinched a top-four spot for UConn in the Big East tournament, but it did the same for Louisville too, right? The Cardinals have 13 wins, the most Nova can win is 13, and Louisville beat them head-to-head? Now, I guess if Louisville and Nova were to end up with the same record as Pitt and Marquette, the tiebreaker gets thrown into a byzantine formula that only these people seem to truly understand. But it suffices to say that, if they get a win today, the Cardinals get the first two days off at the Garden next week.
Elsewhere, West Virginia needs to be careful in Tampa and Providence CANNOT afford a slip-up on the road in Piscataway. I repeat: CANNOT. The NCAA tournament committee annually looks for reasons to keep Providence out. This week's victory over No. 1 Pitt will make that tougher, but a loss today to pitiful Rutgers would make it a lot easier. Friars MUST take care of business here to have a chance.
And then there's Cincinnati at Syracuse, which is a huge game for seeding. These teams are in a three-way tie with West Virginia for seventh place, which means at this point two of them would get next Tuesday off and one would have to play. West Virginia is in the worst position, having lost to each of the other two teams. But today's winner will earn the tiebreaker over the loser, putting them in the best position to earn a first-round bye.
Overall, it's a bigger game for Cincinnati, since Syracuse is probably getting into the NCAA tournament no matter what happens the rest of the way while the Bearcats have a case still to make. Enjoy it, folks, and Happy March. The Ohio Valley Conference tournament starts in just two days...
By the way, I know Villanova's inexplicable loss yesterday clinched a top-four spot for UConn in the Big East tournament, but it did the same for Louisville too, right? The Cardinals have 13 wins, the most Nova can win is 13, and Louisville beat them head-to-head? Now, I guess if Louisville and Nova were to end up with the same record as Pitt and Marquette, the tiebreaker gets thrown into a byzantine formula that only these people seem to truly understand. But it suffices to say that, if they get a win today, the Cardinals get the first two days off at the Garden next week.
Elsewhere, West Virginia needs to be careful in Tampa and Providence CANNOT afford a slip-up on the road in Piscataway. I repeat: CANNOT. The NCAA tournament committee annually looks for reasons to keep Providence out. This week's victory over No. 1 Pitt will make that tougher, but a loss today to pitiful Rutgers would make it a lot easier. Friars MUST take care of business here to have a chance.
And then there's Cincinnati at Syracuse, which is a huge game for seeding. These teams are in a three-way tie with West Virginia for seventh place, which means at this point two of them would get next Tuesday off and one would have to play. West Virginia is in the worst position, having lost to each of the other two teams. But today's winner will earn the tiebreaker over the loser, putting them in the best position to earn a first-round bye.
Overall, it's a bigger game for Cincinnati, since Syracuse is probably getting into the NCAA tournament no matter what happens the rest of the way while the Bearcats have a case still to make. Enjoy it, folks, and Happy March. The Ohio Valley Conference tournament starts in just two days...
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Georgetown 65, South Florida 40
Not entirely sure what to make of it, but the Hoyas certainly needed it. A laugher. A rout. Whatever you want to call it, it's something Georgetown hasn't had in far too long. They knew they were bigger and stronger up front than the outmanned Bulls were, and they exploited that fact, working the ball inside and making sure Greg Monroe was the game's dominant factor.
South Florida's coach believed his team had an off night, and that may be so. But when Georgetown is playing well, running its disciplined offense and unrelenting defense, teams generally do have off nights.
So what's it to be here, fellas? Is it possible that, with eight minutes left in regulation at Syracuse, a light went on and this team started playing with passion and fire and intensity again? Is it possible that they'll actually be a difficult team for Marquette to play on Saturday, for Louisville to play on Monday, and for Villanova to play a week from Saturday?
That would make things fun -- even interesting. Regular readers of this site know we're not about to get our hopes up, but that doesn't mean we won't watch. Marquette is a team that the Hoya team of early January would have beaten. They are loaded on the perimeter, soft inside, and if you can keep them on the perimeter, they've shown that they won't hit all of their jump shots.
Pomeroy has the Hoyas beating Marquette 73-69, a 67 percent certainty of a Georgetown victory. Of course, Pomeroy had the Hoyas 7-1 over their last eight games, and instead they are 2-6. (Just missed on that one, Kenny....)
One more thing. Nikita Mescheriakov is 0-for his last seven three-point attempts since taking over Jessie Sapp's spot in the starting lineup. Now, I understand that Sapp is in the doghouse, and that it apparently has something to do with something he said and shouldn't have said to our beloved coach in the locker room recently. Given that, and the fact that Sapp went about eight weeks without hitting a field goal earlier this year, I can completely see not starting him. But John -- if Mescheriakov can't hit threes...isn't that kind of like playing with four guys?
Just a thought.
Oh. Elsewhere. Right.
We're so over Providence. Yeah, you're reading that right. Up by one at the half, lost by 18. See ya, Friars.
And West Virginia takes care of business against Notre Dame, which puts the Hoyas in a three-way tie for 10th place (hey, we take what we can get), which is intriguing until you remember what the schedule looks like over the next 10 days.
But you never know, Wright? I mean, right? No wait. Maybe I do mean Wright.
Come on, Hoyas. Prove me wrong again. The good way this time.
South Florida's coach believed his team had an off night, and that may be so. But when Georgetown is playing well, running its disciplined offense and unrelenting defense, teams generally do have off nights.
So what's it to be here, fellas? Is it possible that, with eight minutes left in regulation at Syracuse, a light went on and this team started playing with passion and fire and intensity again? Is it possible that they'll actually be a difficult team for Marquette to play on Saturday, for Louisville to play on Monday, and for Villanova to play a week from Saturday?
That would make things fun -- even interesting. Regular readers of this site know we're not about to get our hopes up, but that doesn't mean we won't watch. Marquette is a team that the Hoya team of early January would have beaten. They are loaded on the perimeter, soft inside, and if you can keep them on the perimeter, they've shown that they won't hit all of their jump shots.
Pomeroy has the Hoyas beating Marquette 73-69, a 67 percent certainty of a Georgetown victory. Of course, Pomeroy had the Hoyas 7-1 over their last eight games, and instead they are 2-6. (Just missed on that one, Kenny....)
One more thing. Nikita Mescheriakov is 0-for his last seven three-point attempts since taking over Jessie Sapp's spot in the starting lineup. Now, I understand that Sapp is in the doghouse, and that it apparently has something to do with something he said and shouldn't have said to our beloved coach in the locker room recently. Given that, and the fact that Sapp went about eight weeks without hitting a field goal earlier this year, I can completely see not starting him. But John -- if Mescheriakov can't hit threes...isn't that kind of like playing with four guys?
Just a thought.
Oh. Elsewhere. Right.
We're so over Providence. Yeah, you're reading that right. Up by one at the half, lost by 18. See ya, Friars.
And West Virginia takes care of business against Notre Dame, which puts the Hoyas in a three-way tie for 10th place (hey, we take what we can get), which is intriguing until you remember what the schedule looks like over the next 10 days.
But you never know, Wright? I mean, right? No wait. Maybe I do mean Wright.
Come on, Hoyas. Prove me wrong again. The good way this time.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
UConn 89, Villanova 83
So the other night, while watching the DePaul-South Florida game (yes, I was the only one watching -- call me with any questions about the game), I learned something about this year's Big East tournament. I'd already known that all 16 teams would be in it, but it hadn't occurred to me how, exactly, they were going to make that work.
Evidently, the top four seeds will all receive two byes, advancing straight to the quarterfinal round, which begins Thursday of that week. So, if you're one of the top four, you'll only have to win three games in three days to win the conference tournament.
The No. 5 through No. 8 seeds will each receive one bye and won't play until Wednesday. So those teams, if they want to win the conference tournament, will have to win four games in four days -- something that's only been done twice, last year by Pitt and a few years back when Gerry McNamara and Syracuse did it.
The No. 9 through 16 teams will begin play Tuesday and will have to win five games in five days to be conference champs. If that sounds freaking impossible, there's a good reason.
Now, why does this matter? Because that means somebody from the top nine will be in that Tuesday group. At least one of these nine teams:
Louisville
Marquette
UConn
Pitt
Syracuse
Georgetown
Notre Dame
West Virginia
Villanova
If you believe (as I do) that any of the nine teams in that list could conceivably win the conference tournament if all else were equal, this is jarring. It means that at least one of the Big East's "Power Nine" will be all but eliminated from contention for the title before the tournament begins.
If Villanova is that team, they will have some regrets.
They'll regret not making one of those tip-in chances in the final seconds of the Louisville game go in the net. And I believe they'll look back on last night's game at UConn and think they could have won that too.
Villanova is a nightmare to play against. They hassle everything. All through the second half, as it kept looking at if Connecticut was about to pull away, the Wildcats got a hand on every pass, a hand in the face of every shooter, a steal off every dribble that wasn't perfect. They created chance after chance after chance...
...and missed them all. I mean, this was hard to watch. They'd get the steal, block or some other kind of turnover, then they'd take it down the other end and miss a layup. Or miss a dunk. Or make the inconceivably bad decision to try and drive the lane and dunk on Hasheem Thabeet, whose large hand ended that quest emphatically.
(Quick note on Thabeet, by the way. This guy should be better, especially on offense. It looks as if all he wants to do is block shots. Now, he's excellent at blocking shots -- a total game-changer on defense. But he's an uninterested rebounder and a sometimes invisible offensive player. Jay Bilas kept saying that nobody else in the country has a comparable player, and he's right. The dude is 7-foot-3. But that doesn't help you score if you don't care about offense.)
Anyway, Villanova was way game. A.J. Price hitting 700 three-pointers in the first half didn't bother them. Jeff Adrien asserting his I'm-stronger-than-you-are-and-will-own-the-second-half act didn't bother them. The only thing that seemed to upset them was when they got the ball within a few feet of the rim. Why would that be so scary?
Nice escape win for UConn, which is rolling, but I call this a big-time missed chance for Villanova -- and one they might regret come March.
*Red-Hot Redbirds Roll Rutgers: Yes, of course I kept an eye on the Louisville-Rutgers game. Yes, I took note that it was tied at 7-7. Yes, I was impressed that Louisville then scored the next 21 points, enabling its mascot to take a 90-minute nap and its coaching staff to start drawing up plays for Sunday's game at Syracuse.
Look, I still think Louisville has shown some weaknesses this season, and that they could be vulnerable. But right now, they are ON FIRE, as good and as locked-in as any team in the conference and super-confident. If this keeps up, and builds on itself, they'll have a real good chance to take that No. 1 seed into Madison Square Garden in early March.
Evidently, the top four seeds will all receive two byes, advancing straight to the quarterfinal round, which begins Thursday of that week. So, if you're one of the top four, you'll only have to win three games in three days to win the conference tournament.
The No. 5 through No. 8 seeds will each receive one bye and won't play until Wednesday. So those teams, if they want to win the conference tournament, will have to win four games in four days -- something that's only been done twice, last year by Pitt and a few years back when Gerry McNamara and Syracuse did it.
The No. 9 through 16 teams will begin play Tuesday and will have to win five games in five days to be conference champs. If that sounds freaking impossible, there's a good reason.
Now, why does this matter? Because that means somebody from the top nine will be in that Tuesday group. At least one of these nine teams:
Louisville
Marquette
UConn
Pitt
Syracuse
Georgetown
Notre Dame
West Virginia
Villanova
If you believe (as I do) that any of the nine teams in that list could conceivably win the conference tournament if all else were equal, this is jarring. It means that at least one of the Big East's "Power Nine" will be all but eliminated from contention for the title before the tournament begins.
If Villanova is that team, they will have some regrets.
They'll regret not making one of those tip-in chances in the final seconds of the Louisville game go in the net. And I believe they'll look back on last night's game at UConn and think they could have won that too.
Villanova is a nightmare to play against. They hassle everything. All through the second half, as it kept looking at if Connecticut was about to pull away, the Wildcats got a hand on every pass, a hand in the face of every shooter, a steal off every dribble that wasn't perfect. They created chance after chance after chance...
...and missed them all. I mean, this was hard to watch. They'd get the steal, block or some other kind of turnover, then they'd take it down the other end and miss a layup. Or miss a dunk. Or make the inconceivably bad decision to try and drive the lane and dunk on Hasheem Thabeet, whose large hand ended that quest emphatically.
(Quick note on Thabeet, by the way. This guy should be better, especially on offense. It looks as if all he wants to do is block shots. Now, he's excellent at blocking shots -- a total game-changer on defense. But he's an uninterested rebounder and a sometimes invisible offensive player. Jay Bilas kept saying that nobody else in the country has a comparable player, and he's right. The dude is 7-foot-3. But that doesn't help you score if you don't care about offense.)
Anyway, Villanova was way game. A.J. Price hitting 700 three-pointers in the first half didn't bother them. Jeff Adrien asserting his I'm-stronger-than-you-are-and-will-own-the-second-half act didn't bother them. The only thing that seemed to upset them was when they got the ball within a few feet of the rim. Why would that be so scary?
Nice escape win for UConn, which is rolling, but I call this a big-time missed chance for Villanova -- and one they might regret come March.
*Red-Hot Redbirds Roll Rutgers: Yes, of course I kept an eye on the Louisville-Rutgers game. Yes, I took note that it was tied at 7-7. Yes, I was impressed that Louisville then scored the next 21 points, enabling its mascot to take a 90-minute nap and its coaching staff to start drawing up plays for Sunday's game at Syracuse.
Look, I still think Louisville has shown some weaknesses this season, and that they could be vulnerable. But right now, they are ON FIRE, as good and as locked-in as any team in the conference and super-confident. If this keeps up, and builds on itself, they'll have a real good chance to take that No. 1 seed into Madison Square Garden in early March.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Saturday Night Recap -- Cards and Eagles Flying High
The only two undefeated teams left in Big East play are Louisville and Marquette, and man did they earn it.
The angle on this one seems to be that Louisville outlasted Pitt physically, wearing down the nation's No. 1 team with its relentless press and handing the Panthers their first loss of the season. It's a viable take that jives with what we saw Louisville do to Notre Dame, but there has to be a caveat. DeJuan Blair missed half the game due to foul trouble. During the brief times in the second half when he was on the floor, Pitt looked like a totally different team. And had he been able to play more, Pitt probably would have looked like the better team. Playing without Blair is like trying to drive a truck through three feet of snow without a plow. Louisville's pressure is the snow, and it's tough to fight through. And if you're trying it without your plow, you have no chance.
But those are the ifs, and these are the facts: Louisville keeps winning, and when they play a focused, intense game, they're as good as anybody in the conference. Their point guard play is shaky, and there are still too many mistakes. I mean, the whole final minute was a mess -- dumb fouls and turnovers that kept Pitt in the game when it could have been salted away. This happened against Kentucky and Villanova, too -- maddeningly sloppy play by a team that should be a better closer. But they won those games too. And if they can keep winning, gaining confidence and growing as they win, they'll be in pretty good shape come postseason time. What we know about them already is that it's real tough to run with them for 40 minutes.
So that's the Pitt-Louisville game, and then there's Marquette-Providence, a bizarre late night show up in Rhode Island in which the underdog home team blew 13-point second-half lead and lost by nine and the brother of an injured Providence player wandered onto the court during a free throw to talk to the officials about a call.
(Yeah, if you didn't see it, it looked as weird as it sounds. Jeff Xavier is the Providence player, and he takes an elbow in the eye. Starts bleeding like crazy. Leaves the court, very upset, and doesn't return to the game. Ugly. Worst part is, no foul was called on that play. A foul was called seconds later, and while they were lined up and getting ready to shoot it, Jonathan Xavier, Jeff's brother, wanders out onto the court in a big old winter coat and confronts one of the officials. All of a sudden people realize what's happening, and a couple of people start rushing the guy off the court. Scary, really.)
In terms of the game, Providence looked heartbroken at the end, and they should have. This was their game, totally, and they let it slip away. Of course it didn't help that Lazar Hayward started bombing threes, but just because that happened didn't mean Providence had to take itself out of its own game on the other end and start rushing perimeter shots too. It didn't mean they had to start turning the ball over as if they were giving out Toys for Tots. And it didn't mean they had to chunk every single free throw in the final five minutes.
Providence is an experienced, senior-heavy team with a size advantage over Marquette, so it was weird to see them fall apart like that. But Marquette is also an experienced, senior-heavy team, and they're much better than Providence, so I guess it should have been a big surprise to see them assert that.
I count this as a big win for Marquette. It was on the road against a team that's probably the best of that "bottom seven" group and had a 13-point lead on them with less than 15 minutes to go. Right now, everyone still wants to say Pitt and UConn are the best two teams in the conference, but Marquette's done nothing wrong. Sure, they haven't played as tough a schedule as some have. And yes, I imagine they will run into problems dealing with the interior size of teams like Pitt, UConn, Louisville and Syracuse. But if they can stretch out defenses with their outside shooting, they'll be able to (a) stay in those games and (b) run their offense around the trees.
Their schedule will get tough, eventually. I mean, they have DePaul twice in their next four games, which really shouldn't be allowed. And they still have South Florida, St. John's and Seton Hall to come. But their final five games are at Georgetown/UConn/at Louisville/at Pitt/Syracuse. So we'll get to find out for sure whether they really are this good. But after last night, I think we have less reason to doubt it.
The angle on this one seems to be that Louisville outlasted Pitt physically, wearing down the nation's No. 1 team with its relentless press and handing the Panthers their first loss of the season. It's a viable take that jives with what we saw Louisville do to Notre Dame, but there has to be a caveat. DeJuan Blair missed half the game due to foul trouble. During the brief times in the second half when he was on the floor, Pitt looked like a totally different team. And had he been able to play more, Pitt probably would have looked like the better team. Playing without Blair is like trying to drive a truck through three feet of snow without a plow. Louisville's pressure is the snow, and it's tough to fight through. And if you're trying it without your plow, you have no chance.
But those are the ifs, and these are the facts: Louisville keeps winning, and when they play a focused, intense game, they're as good as anybody in the conference. Their point guard play is shaky, and there are still too many mistakes. I mean, the whole final minute was a mess -- dumb fouls and turnovers that kept Pitt in the game when it could have been salted away. This happened against Kentucky and Villanova, too -- maddeningly sloppy play by a team that should be a better closer. But they won those games too. And if they can keep winning, gaining confidence and growing as they win, they'll be in pretty good shape come postseason time. What we know about them already is that it's real tough to run with them for 40 minutes.
So that's the Pitt-Louisville game, and then there's Marquette-Providence, a bizarre late night show up in Rhode Island in which the underdog home team blew 13-point second-half lead and lost by nine and the brother of an injured Providence player wandered onto the court during a free throw to talk to the officials about a call.
(Yeah, if you didn't see it, it looked as weird as it sounds. Jeff Xavier is the Providence player, and he takes an elbow in the eye. Starts bleeding like crazy. Leaves the court, very upset, and doesn't return to the game. Ugly. Worst part is, no foul was called on that play. A foul was called seconds later, and while they were lined up and getting ready to shoot it, Jonathan Xavier, Jeff's brother, wanders out onto the court in a big old winter coat and confronts one of the officials. All of a sudden people realize what's happening, and a couple of people start rushing the guy off the court. Scary, really.)
In terms of the game, Providence looked heartbroken at the end, and they should have. This was their game, totally, and they let it slip away. Of course it didn't help that Lazar Hayward started bombing threes, but just because that happened didn't mean Providence had to take itself out of its own game on the other end and start rushing perimeter shots too. It didn't mean they had to start turning the ball over as if they were giving out Toys for Tots. And it didn't mean they had to chunk every single free throw in the final five minutes.
Providence is an experienced, senior-heavy team with a size advantage over Marquette, so it was weird to see them fall apart like that. But Marquette is also an experienced, senior-heavy team, and they're much better than Providence, so I guess it should have been a big surprise to see them assert that.
I count this as a big win for Marquette. It was on the road against a team that's probably the best of that "bottom seven" group and had a 13-point lead on them with less than 15 minutes to go. Right now, everyone still wants to say Pitt and UConn are the best two teams in the conference, but Marquette's done nothing wrong. Sure, they haven't played as tough a schedule as some have. And yes, I imagine they will run into problems dealing with the interior size of teams like Pitt, UConn, Louisville and Syracuse. But if they can stretch out defenses with their outside shooting, they'll be able to (a) stay in those games and (b) run their offense around the trees.
Their schedule will get tough, eventually. I mean, they have DePaul twice in their next four games, which really shouldn't be allowed. And they still have South Florida, St. John's and Seton Hall to come. But their final five games are at Georgetown/UConn/at Louisville/at Pitt/Syracuse. So we'll get to find out for sure whether they really are this good. But after last night, I think we have less reason to doubt it.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Saturday Preview -- Games Big and Small
While passing the jittery, excited time remaining before the Friday Night Lights premiere for non-DirecTV subscribers, I figured a primer on the six Saturday Big East games might be a cool distraction. I came to this after evaluating several other options:
1. Going for a run. (It's 11 degrees.)
2. Going to the gym. (Later, when it's 3:00 and nobody's there. I promise.)
3. Updating my new baseball blog, nybaseballhack.blogspot.com. (Shameless plug.)
4. Eating lunch. (Though, I could eat while typing, and you'd never know...)
5. Looking for a new job. (There aren't any, which is why this blog exists.)
So here are six thumbnails, each of which includes a brief RCR preview along with a Ken Pomeroy rankings comparison of the teams involved. The games are ranked in order of their importance/slash level of interest to this blog, which admits to a bias:
Georgetown at Duke, 1:30 pm, CBS
Pomeroy Prediction: Duke(1) 71, Georgetown(4) 64
RCR's Take: The Hoyas spent the first half Wednesday night shooting over Syracuse's zone. Saturday, they'll have a much harder time in the face of Duke's perimeter pressure. This will be more like the defense they faced last Saturday against Providence, only...you know...a lot better. For Georgetown to win, they'll need to be able to move the ball inside and out, to and from Greg Monroe, whose inside presence is one of the few advantages the Hoyas have and whose passing ability might be the only way to free up the guards for the outside shots. Also, it wouldn't hurt if a massive flu bug hit the Duke campus tonight and kept the crowd to a minimum...
PREDICTION: I fear a game somewhat like the Tennessee game, where the Hoyas played well, especially on defense, but Tennessee hit everything in sight. I don't foresee the Duke pressure rattling the GU guards, but I think the crowd and the Blue Devils' depth will wear down Georgetown in the second half. Duke 79, Georgetown 68.
Pittsburgh at Louisville, 6 pm, ESPN
Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville(14) 66, Pittsburgh(5) 65
RCR's Take: Those who've been reading know I like Pitt a lot and I'm not sold on Louisville, but the Cardinals showed depth, strength and toughness earlier this week against Notre Dame, and they are the home team. And Pomeroy picks an upset against his own rankings. Is it possible? Sure, if Louisville's zone disrupts Pitt's ability to feed the ball to DeJuan Blair inside. And if Samardo Samuels can rebound enough to limit Blair's second-chance points. And if the Pitt players are distracted, as I always am, by the shockingly recumbent Louisville mascot. (Seriously! He just sits there in that corner all game!!)
PREDICTION: It's Pitt's first real test since taking over No. 1. Louisville is feeling good about some recent escapes. It all points red. But I'm not buying it. For me, even if Samuels and contain Blair, somebody's got to contain Sam Young, and I don't think Earl Clark has it in him to do that for 40 minutes. Pitt 62, Louisville 57.
Notre Dame at Syracuse, Noon, ESPN
Pomeroy Prediction: Syracuse(32) 86, Notre Dame(42) 79
RCR's Take: First, wow. Look how low Pomeroy has these two teams. He was forecasting an easy victory for Georgetown over Syracuse on Wednesday, and why not? The Hoyas were the home team, ranked in his top 5, while the Orange were sitting there on his NCAA tournament bubble. Looking at his Syracuse page, it appears the Orange lose massive points because they turn the ball over too much and don't hit free throws. But that's not likely to matter against a Notre Dame team that plays no defense. Syracuse's best bet is to do what they can against Harangody inside but not get down once he starts hitting those zany fall-away hook shots from six feet. There's nothing you can do about that. Play your zone, drive their guards crazy, get back down the other end of the floor and score those easy buckets Notre Dame is going to be giving you all day.
Prediction: I'd love to pick against Syracuse, because I'd love it if Syracuse lost all of their games. But I can't do it here. Not at home. Not against the softest good team in the conference. Notre Dame doesn't play defense. Won't play defense. Looks for all the world as if it doesn't consider defense an important part of the game. If he's really, really on, Jonny Flynn could have a Jodie Meeks-level offensive performance against Notre Dame. Syracuse gets the taste of the GU game out of its mouth in a hurry. Syracuse 90, Notre Dame 75.
Marquette at Providence, 9 pm, ESPN2
Pomeroy Prediction: Marquette(22) 81, Providence(78) 76
RCR's Take: RCR is staying up to watch this game. I love the Marquette guards but haven't had the chance to watch them play a whole game yet. I love Providence's experience and toughness. There are going to be seniors all over the court in this game, and I think it's a good candidate to be Providence's first "surprise" win of the season. Remember, so far this year, the only Top 9 Big East team to lose to one of the league's bottom-tier teams is Notre Dame, which fell at St. John's a couple of weeks back. If Marquette can shoot the ball and contain Efejuku, they'll come away with a win about which they can feel really good. Because if there's a team in that bottom tier that's going to sneak up and challenge the Top 9, Providence is it.
Prediction: I've been thinking over the past week that Marquette might be my pick to win the conference. They have a chance to show something here, and if they win easily, I'll drive the bandwagon. But I just have this feeling. Late game, far from home, outmanned inside...I see somebody in black and white going off and having a big game. Providence 78, Marquette 77.
South Florida at West Virginia, Noon, ESPN Full Court
Pomeroy Prediction: West Virginia(7) 71, South Florida (105) 53
RCR's Take: Pomeroy has the Mountaineers seventh in the country, but they're 1-2 in conference following losses to UConn and at Marquette. They rebound the ball well, especially on offense. They force turnovers. They have a big man in DeSean Butler and a shooter in Alex Ruoff who are just going to be way too much for an undersized, undermanned Bulls team that's leaving sunny Tampa for a frigid trip north.
Prediction: West Virginia is dying for an easy conference win, and they'll get it against a South Florida team that won't be able to touch them on the boards. West Virginia 79, South Florida 60.
Cincinnati at DePaul, 2 pm, ESPNU
Pomeroy Prediction: Cincinnati(86) 71, DePaul(181) 67
RCR's Take: It's a testament to how good the Big East is that this game would be on ESPNU, a channel you can actually get nationally. Um, let's see...Cincy is a strong offensive rebounding team, thanks mainly to freshman Yancy Gates. He, Mike Williams and Rashad Bishop form a fairly impressive front line that might be able to win some games in a different conference. DePaul can't shoot from anywhere, doesn't rebound especially well, misses free throws...they're a bottom of the Big East barrel team that's facing a rare chance to pick up a conference win. In fact, a look at the remaining schedules indicates that these two teams are going to be sorry to see each other go.
Prediction: Pomeroy's projecting a total of two wins the rest of the way for these two teams combined. And it's not one each. Cincinnati 80, DePaul 65
1. Going for a run. (It's 11 degrees.)
2. Going to the gym. (Later, when it's 3:00 and nobody's there. I promise.)
3. Updating my new baseball blog, nybaseballhack.blogspot.com. (Shameless plug.)
4. Eating lunch. (Though, I could eat while typing, and you'd never know...)
5. Looking for a new job. (There aren't any, which is why this blog exists.)
So here are six thumbnails, each of which includes a brief RCR preview along with a Ken Pomeroy rankings comparison of the teams involved. The games are ranked in order of their importance/slash level of interest to this blog, which admits to a bias:
Georgetown at Duke, 1:30 pm, CBS
Pomeroy Prediction: Duke(1) 71, Georgetown(4) 64
RCR's Take: The Hoyas spent the first half Wednesday night shooting over Syracuse's zone. Saturday, they'll have a much harder time in the face of Duke's perimeter pressure. This will be more like the defense they faced last Saturday against Providence, only...you know...a lot better. For Georgetown to win, they'll need to be able to move the ball inside and out, to and from Greg Monroe, whose inside presence is one of the few advantages the Hoyas have and whose passing ability might be the only way to free up the guards for the outside shots. Also, it wouldn't hurt if a massive flu bug hit the Duke campus tonight and kept the crowd to a minimum...
PREDICTION: I fear a game somewhat like the Tennessee game, where the Hoyas played well, especially on defense, but Tennessee hit everything in sight. I don't foresee the Duke pressure rattling the GU guards, but I think the crowd and the Blue Devils' depth will wear down Georgetown in the second half. Duke 79, Georgetown 68.
Pittsburgh at Louisville, 6 pm, ESPN
Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville(14) 66, Pittsburgh(5) 65
RCR's Take: Those who've been reading know I like Pitt a lot and I'm not sold on Louisville, but the Cardinals showed depth, strength and toughness earlier this week against Notre Dame, and they are the home team. And Pomeroy picks an upset against his own rankings. Is it possible? Sure, if Louisville's zone disrupts Pitt's ability to feed the ball to DeJuan Blair inside. And if Samardo Samuels can rebound enough to limit Blair's second-chance points. And if the Pitt players are distracted, as I always am, by the shockingly recumbent Louisville mascot. (Seriously! He just sits there in that corner all game!!)
PREDICTION: It's Pitt's first real test since taking over No. 1. Louisville is feeling good about some recent escapes. It all points red. But I'm not buying it. For me, even if Samuels and contain Blair, somebody's got to contain Sam Young, and I don't think Earl Clark has it in him to do that for 40 minutes. Pitt 62, Louisville 57.
Notre Dame at Syracuse, Noon, ESPN
Pomeroy Prediction: Syracuse(32) 86, Notre Dame(42) 79
RCR's Take: First, wow. Look how low Pomeroy has these two teams. He was forecasting an easy victory for Georgetown over Syracuse on Wednesday, and why not? The Hoyas were the home team, ranked in his top 5, while the Orange were sitting there on his NCAA tournament bubble. Looking at his Syracuse page, it appears the Orange lose massive points because they turn the ball over too much and don't hit free throws. But that's not likely to matter against a Notre Dame team that plays no defense. Syracuse's best bet is to do what they can against Harangody inside but not get down once he starts hitting those zany fall-away hook shots from six feet. There's nothing you can do about that. Play your zone, drive their guards crazy, get back down the other end of the floor and score those easy buckets Notre Dame is going to be giving you all day.
Prediction: I'd love to pick against Syracuse, because I'd love it if Syracuse lost all of their games. But I can't do it here. Not at home. Not against the softest good team in the conference. Notre Dame doesn't play defense. Won't play defense. Looks for all the world as if it doesn't consider defense an important part of the game. If he's really, really on, Jonny Flynn could have a Jodie Meeks-level offensive performance against Notre Dame. Syracuse gets the taste of the GU game out of its mouth in a hurry. Syracuse 90, Notre Dame 75.
Marquette at Providence, 9 pm, ESPN2
Pomeroy Prediction: Marquette(22) 81, Providence(78) 76
RCR's Take: RCR is staying up to watch this game. I love the Marquette guards but haven't had the chance to watch them play a whole game yet. I love Providence's experience and toughness. There are going to be seniors all over the court in this game, and I think it's a good candidate to be Providence's first "surprise" win of the season. Remember, so far this year, the only Top 9 Big East team to lose to one of the league's bottom-tier teams is Notre Dame, which fell at St. John's a couple of weeks back. If Marquette can shoot the ball and contain Efejuku, they'll come away with a win about which they can feel really good. Because if there's a team in that bottom tier that's going to sneak up and challenge the Top 9, Providence is it.
Prediction: I've been thinking over the past week that Marquette might be my pick to win the conference. They have a chance to show something here, and if they win easily, I'll drive the bandwagon. But I just have this feeling. Late game, far from home, outmanned inside...I see somebody in black and white going off and having a big game. Providence 78, Marquette 77.
South Florida at West Virginia, Noon, ESPN Full Court
Pomeroy Prediction: West Virginia(7) 71, South Florida (105) 53
RCR's Take: Pomeroy has the Mountaineers seventh in the country, but they're 1-2 in conference following losses to UConn and at Marquette. They rebound the ball well, especially on offense. They force turnovers. They have a big man in DeSean Butler and a shooter in Alex Ruoff who are just going to be way too much for an undersized, undermanned Bulls team that's leaving sunny Tampa for a frigid trip north.
Prediction: West Virginia is dying for an easy conference win, and they'll get it against a South Florida team that won't be able to touch them on the boards. West Virginia 79, South Florida 60.
Cincinnati at DePaul, 2 pm, ESPNU
Pomeroy Prediction: Cincinnati(86) 71, DePaul(181) 67
RCR's Take: It's a testament to how good the Big East is that this game would be on ESPNU, a channel you can actually get nationally. Um, let's see...Cincy is a strong offensive rebounding team, thanks mainly to freshman Yancy Gates. He, Mike Williams and Rashad Bishop form a fairly impressive front line that might be able to win some games in a different conference. DePaul can't shoot from anywhere, doesn't rebound especially well, misses free throws...they're a bottom of the Big East barrel team that's facing a rare chance to pick up a conference win. In fact, a look at the remaining schedules indicates that these two teams are going to be sorry to see each other go.
Prediction: Pomeroy's projecting a total of two wins the rest of the way for these two teams combined. And it's not one each. Cincinnati 80, DePaul 65
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Louisville 87, Notre Dame 73 (OT)
It's possible that I've been too hard on Louisville. I'm not sure why that would be. I have nothing against them. I don't hate Rick Pitino. The mascot annoys me a little, the way he sits there in that corner the whole time looking as if he's waiting for somebody to bring him a pina colada and massage his huge yellow feet, but that's a minor thing.
The only thing about Louisville that bugs me is that, when I've seen them this year, they don't seem to be as good as they're supposed to be. And their failings are failings of focus and hustle.
But I don't know. Maybe their weaknesses aren't fatal. They lost three non-conference games they shouldn't have lost, nearly gave away a game to Kentucky and got lucky to beat Villanova. But here they sit, now 3-0 in conference, and there's no denying this win last night was a good one.
It came against a game Notre Dame team that, sure, plays no defense but is tough to outscore and has Luke Harangody, who is (ready?) the best player in the country.
Yes. No offense to Tyler Hansbrough or Blake Griffin, but I truly believe Harangody is the best college basketball player in the country. The more I see him, the more I recall Christian Laettner, except I think Harangody is physically tougher. He beats up up inside in the first half so that he can roam more freely in the second half and score from all over. He gets rebounds. He gets steals. You look for the ball, you're going to find him. And my god can he score. Playing defense on him is like Rocky trying to catch the chicken in Rocky II. You do everything right, force him into a bad shot, and he still scores. He shoots high, six-foot jumpers off the glass over the hands of taller players, and they go in. The ESPN broadcast crew last night said they'd spoken to a scout who ranked Harangody as a better pro prospect than Hansbrough, and it didn't sound ridiculous.
Anyway, Harangody and the Irish ran out of gas, and the reason was the way Louisville maintained its pressure throughout the game. Sure, there were stretches when they looked like the maddening Louisville team of which I've written before -- as if they were annoyed and frustrated at the idea that they had to work hard and try to do something crazy like maybe not let three-point shooter Kyle McAlarney drive the lane for an easy layup. But more than in any game I've seen them play this year, they maintained their defensive intensity. This gave them a tremendous late advantage over Notre Dame, which has none, and which also doesn't have the athletes Louisville has.
Terrence Williams had the big game and the flashy numbers, but watching the game it felt as if Earl Clark was the impact guy. Samardo Samuels will be a force in the paint as he continues to develop. And they have decent depth, with Knowles, McGee and Jennings contributing off the bench. With Louisville, it's not and never has been a question of talent. They have plenty. It's a question of whether they can keep their intensity and focus throughout the game and hold off the kind of tough opponents they're going to face all year in this conference. Last night, they answered that question.
The only thing about Louisville that bugs me is that, when I've seen them this year, they don't seem to be as good as they're supposed to be. And their failings are failings of focus and hustle.
But I don't know. Maybe their weaknesses aren't fatal. They lost three non-conference games they shouldn't have lost, nearly gave away a game to Kentucky and got lucky to beat Villanova. But here they sit, now 3-0 in conference, and there's no denying this win last night was a good one.
It came against a game Notre Dame team that, sure, plays no defense but is tough to outscore and has Luke Harangody, who is (ready?) the best player in the country.
Yes. No offense to Tyler Hansbrough or Blake Griffin, but I truly believe Harangody is the best college basketball player in the country. The more I see him, the more I recall Christian Laettner, except I think Harangody is physically tougher. He beats up up inside in the first half so that he can roam more freely in the second half and score from all over. He gets rebounds. He gets steals. You look for the ball, you're going to find him. And my god can he score. Playing defense on him is like Rocky trying to catch the chicken in Rocky II. You do everything right, force him into a bad shot, and he still scores. He shoots high, six-foot jumpers off the glass over the hands of taller players, and they go in. The ESPN broadcast crew last night said they'd spoken to a scout who ranked Harangody as a better pro prospect than Hansbrough, and it didn't sound ridiculous.
Anyway, Harangody and the Irish ran out of gas, and the reason was the way Louisville maintained its pressure throughout the game. Sure, there were stretches when they looked like the maddening Louisville team of which I've written before -- as if they were annoyed and frustrated at the idea that they had to work hard and try to do something crazy like maybe not let three-point shooter Kyle McAlarney drive the lane for an easy layup. But more than in any game I've seen them play this year, they maintained their defensive intensity. This gave them a tremendous late advantage over Notre Dame, which has none, and which also doesn't have the athletes Louisville has.
Terrence Williams had the big game and the flashy numbers, but watching the game it felt as if Earl Clark was the impact guy. Samardo Samuels will be a force in the paint as he continues to develop. And they have decent depth, with Knowles, McGee and Jennings contributing off the bench. With Louisville, it's not and never has been a question of talent. They have plenty. It's a question of whether they can keep their intensity and focus throughout the game and hold off the kind of tough opponents they're going to face all year in this conference. Last night, they answered that question.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Weekend Recap -- Still not buying Louisville
I mean, right? They tried to give that game to Villanova about 17 different times in the final minute, and Nova just wouldn't take it. Missed free throws, missed put-backs...So many chances to make the Cardinals pay for the loose, lackadaiscial way they play the game, and yet they come away losers, just as Kentucky did a week earlier after coming back when L'ville refused to close them out.
I guess you could say you should give Louisville credit for winning these games when they're obviously not playing as well as they should be playing. But I don't think a team deserves credit when it's not playing as well as it should be playing. I think Louisville should be expected to play better than they are. I think Pitino should have more control over his team and the on-court decisions he makes than he does.
I think Louisville is going to get beaten a few times this year when it shouldn't. I think they should be able to hold or build on leads in the second half, and I don't like the body language of their players when it does start to slip away -- as if they're annoyed and tired instead of angry and determined.
Villanova by the Numbers has a stat breakdown that shows how the Wildcats hung right with the Cardinals in "athletic" stats like steals and blocks, and how they were able to erase Louisville's shooting advantage in the second half.
Maybe I'm making too much of this. It was, after all, a road win in the conference. The conference's top teams are basically doing what they're supposed to do. Pitt, Marquette, Syracuse and UConn all rolled this weekend. Georgetown looked sluggish early but came back behind Greg Monroe to handle Providence.
The conference's "Power Nine" have a combined eight losses. Of those, only Notre Dame's loss at St. John's qualifies as a bad loss.
Villanova's losses are home to Louisville and at Marquette. Georgetown's are home to Pitt and at Notre Dame. West Virginia's are home to UConn and at Marquette. UConn lost at home to Georgetown.
So far, it's been about taking care of business, which in the end is what Louisville did, no matter how shaky they looked at the end.
Right now, the best team in the conference is Pitt, but I sure wish they played Marquette before March 4, because I'm starting to wonder if the best team in the conference might be Marquette, and I'd like to know.
(And yes, I know it could be Syracuse, but we here at RCR are choosing not to acknowledge that horrifying possibility until we absolutely have to -- like, February 15, earliest.)
Tonight is Notre Dame at Louisville. If I were a betting man I'd bet the over, because neither one of these teams likes playing defense very much. I say Harangody takes down the Cardinals on the road with some help from the perimeter, where the Irish should outwit, out-hustle and out-shoot the home team. Louisville should be able to out-athlete them, but to do that they'll have to maintain their focus for 40 full minutes. And from what I've seen this year, they don't.
I guess you could say you should give Louisville credit for winning these games when they're obviously not playing as well as they should be playing. But I don't think a team deserves credit when it's not playing as well as it should be playing. I think Louisville should be expected to play better than they are. I think Pitino should have more control over his team and the on-court decisions he makes than he does.
I think Louisville is going to get beaten a few times this year when it shouldn't. I think they should be able to hold or build on leads in the second half, and I don't like the body language of their players when it does start to slip away -- as if they're annoyed and tired instead of angry and determined.
Villanova by the Numbers has a stat breakdown that shows how the Wildcats hung right with the Cardinals in "athletic" stats like steals and blocks, and how they were able to erase Louisville's shooting advantage in the second half.
Maybe I'm making too much of this. It was, after all, a road win in the conference. The conference's top teams are basically doing what they're supposed to do. Pitt, Marquette, Syracuse and UConn all rolled this weekend. Georgetown looked sluggish early but came back behind Greg Monroe to handle Providence.
The conference's "Power Nine" have a combined eight losses. Of those, only Notre Dame's loss at St. John's qualifies as a bad loss.
Villanova's losses are home to Louisville and at Marquette. Georgetown's are home to Pitt and at Notre Dame. West Virginia's are home to UConn and at Marquette. UConn lost at home to Georgetown.
So far, it's been about taking care of business, which in the end is what Louisville did, no matter how shaky they looked at the end.
Right now, the best team in the conference is Pitt, but I sure wish they played Marquette before March 4, because I'm starting to wonder if the best team in the conference might be Marquette, and I'd like to know.
(And yes, I know it could be Syracuse, but we here at RCR are choosing not to acknowledge that horrifying possibility until we absolutely have to -- like, February 15, earliest.)
Tonight is Notre Dame at Louisville. If I were a betting man I'd bet the over, because neither one of these teams likes playing defense very much. I say Harangody takes down the Cardinals on the road with some help from the perimeter, where the Irish should outwit, out-hustle and out-shoot the home team. Louisville should be able to out-athlete them, but to do that they'll have to maintain their focus for 40 full minutes. And from what I've seen this year, they don't.
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