Busted Already?

I mean, the President only got 11 out of 16 right on the first day, so I guess I don't feel too bad, getting only 10. But he didn't lose any second-round winners, whereas the day's biggest upset was of a team (Illinois) that I had picked into the Elite Eight.

Yikes.

Well, at least that's out of the way. Now I can enjoy the games without worrying about whether I need to get them right or not. I am cooked on day one.

Just two of the tournament's seven Big East teams played on day one. UConn looked terrifying and Villanova looked shaky. (Though anybody who watched that American team play should understand why those who call for the elimination of the mid-major auto-bids are dead wrong. That's what this tournament is all about -- a team like that playing good, solid, fun-to-watch basketball and putting themselves in position to really, truly, accurately believe that they have a chance to win an NCAA tournament game. The upsets and near-upsets in games like that are what this tournament is built on -- why it's the event it is every year. A tournament without the Americans and Cal State-Northridges wouldn't be as cool.)

My picks for today (or, "Teams You Should Run Right Out and Bet Against Now While You Still Have the Chance"):

Syracuse over Stephen F. Austin (though you know which way this blog is rooting)
Oklahoma State over Tennessee (coin flip)
Kansas over North Dakota State (but you have to think about it, right? It's Kansas.)
Utah State over Marquette (UPSET SPECIAL!!!)
Arizona State over Temple (Even though the Pac-10 didn't show much on day one)
Pitt over East Tennessee State (Has ETSU ever seen anyone like DaJuan Blair?)
West Virginia over Dayton (if the game were in Dayton, maybe. But it's in Minnesota)
Missouri over Cornell (to Andy Bernard's chagrin)
Utah over Arizona (too much Keith Van Horn? Oh wait...)
Louisville over Morehead State (MSU will always have this past Tuesday)
USC over Boston College (again with the Pac-10. Why???)
Xavier over Portland State (Xavier is another Elite Eight team -- can't lose two)
Siena over Ohio State (...)
Wake Forest over Cleveland State (though everybody likes the upset here...)
Michigan State over Robert Morris (MSU could get every rebound in the game)
Florida State over Wisconsin (ACC vs. Big Ten? Should be no contest. Should be.)

Syracuse game tips at 12:15. Bedtime looks like at least 12 hours later. Getcha popcorn ready, as a bizarre man once said.

Pitt 90, Marquette 75 (Regularly Scheduled Programming)

Wow. I mean, it was 67-65 at one point. But when you get EVERY SINGLE REBOUND FOR 10 MINUTES, you tend to pull away.

This result, combined with Louisville's thrashing of Seton Hall, means a lot of things:

-If Louisville wins at West Virginia on Saturday AND UConn loses at Pitt on Saturday, Louisville is the regular-season conference champion and No. 1 seed in the Big East tournament.

(-In that scenario, UConn (currently the No. 1 team in the country), would finish THIRD in the Big East, since they'd have lost two games and therefore the tiebreaker to Pitt.)

-If Louisville loses at West Virginia on Saturday and UConn loses at Pitt, I think Pitt is the No. 1 seed, but they'd all three be tied, and truly, I'm not sure what that means. More research is needed.

-If UConn wins at Pitt, they are the No. 1 seed and regular-season champ, no questions asked.

-Pitt is guaranteed a two-round bye, and along with UConn and Louisville won't have to play until the Thursday quarterfinals at the Garden.

-Marquette and Villanova are tied for fourth, and Nova holds the tiebreaker edge on Marquette. Which means, if Villanova beats Providence at home Thursday night OR Marquette loses at home to Syracuse on Saturday, then Nova gets the No. 4 seed and the two-round bye, and Marquette would finish fifth and have to play on Wednesday.

-Also tonight, DePaul lost to fall to 0-17. One game left to avoid the historic bagel. Guess where it is? That's right. At Georgetown.

Of COURSE I'm worried! How could you not be?

A Seven-Bid League?

Remember when nine bids looked certain and people wondered if the league might be able to get 10? Well, ESPN's latest Bracketology has the Big East with seven bids -- Cincinnati and Providence both on the "First Four Out" list and Notre Dame and Georgetown justifiably not mentioned at all.

I'm thinking Cincinnati can get in with a win at Syracuse tomorrow and Providence can get in with a win at Villanova on Thursday, but the latter is going to be tough, because Nova is still motivated to grab one of those top four seeds in the conference tournament.

That's why my hopes for a Hoya upset this afternoon are minimal. I foresee something like the Louisville game from earlier this week -- a game in which Georgetown was totally outclassed by a far superior opponent and never had a chance. But I guess you never know. Right? RIGHT?????

Elsewhere on today's schedule, UConn must take care of business at home against Notre Dame. (If they do, they secure one of those top four seeds and a two-day bye at the Garden.) Pitt must take care of business at Seton Hall (so as not to fall too far from its short-lived No. 1 ranking). And St. John's must take care of its business at DePaul. The Blue Demons put a scare into Villanova the other night, may be playing well (for them) right now, and NOBODY wants to be the first Big East team to lose to DePaul this year. Not so close to the end...

Catching Up

As mentioned in earlier posts, it's been a tough week to keep up with the blog because I've spent it in Florida, covering spring training baseball. (Hearkening back to the days when I had a real job.)

But I have been watching what's been going on in the conference, and I'm here with some of the conclusions I've drawn from this week:

1. Marquette is toast without Dominic James. NO way they can absorb this loss the way UConn can (and sort of has) absorbed Jerome Dyson's. UConn is considerably deeper than Marquette is, with massive talent at every position and coming off the bench. All of Marquette's success this year depended on the brilliance of the "big four" -- James, McNeal, Matthews and Heyward. They don't have enough to cover what they lose with James out. Their perimeter game is their life, and it's irretrievably weakened. Which is too bad. I liked that team a lot.

2. Jim Calhoun is a jerk and a bully, but so are a lot of college coaches (football and basketball), and that doesn't mean he should have to give back any of his money if he doesn't want to. Would we all like wealthy people to show a little sensitivity in these times -- to at least act as if they care that people other than themselves and their neighbors are suffering? Sure. Would we like professionals to treat other professionals as professionals in professional settings -- i.e., not telling a fellow adult to "shut up" when asked a question in a news conference? Of course. But Calhoun, as great a coach as he is, has never been known as an especially effervescent human being. You wish the greats would all be good guys, but when you cover sports, you learn quickly that it's just not that way.

3. Villanova is in a really good spot to be the sleeper pick to win the Big East tournament and score a very nice seed in the Big Dance. Sure, they got scared by DePaul the other night, but they did win the game, and they're still moving in on Marquette and Pitt as they try to crack that top four and get the double-by at the Garden. With James and Dyson out, and Pitt having looked bad in a loss to Providence, red-hot Nova has every reason to think it can be conference champ with a good week in NYC.

4. I believe that DePaul will be 0-17 on the morning of March 7 but will fend off historic ignominy by defeating Georgetown in the final game of its regular season. I believe this with all of my heart, and it's a belief based on nothing but the way I feel this Hoya season is going. Call me a pessimist if you like, but what have we seen from the Hoyas to make me anything else?

Pitt 76, UConn 68

Yeah, this is late, but it's been a busy couple of days for reasons that have nothing to do with hoops. Trying to find a job and all that stuff, you know...

Anyway, my primary conclusion from Monday night's big game was one I've drawn before: Pitt is for real. I mean, as a Final Four and a national title contender. That UConn team was on fire. And yes, they're without Jerome Dyson. And yes, that had an obvious effect. But Pitt went in with a clear plan for stopping (or at least hassling) Hasheen Thabeet, which nobody had done in weeks, and it worked.

It worked because DeJaun Blair is an animal -- not tall enough but certainly tough, strong and mean enough to play Thabeet and make his night miserable. His clear mission throughout the first half was to be in between Thabeet and the basket -- not even necessarily to do anything while there, but just be in between the player and the hoop. And it worked.

Thabeet is a thug, as we've discussed here before, and a bully. And most teams don't have anybody who can or will stand up to him. Pitt is an obvious exception, and once they got into Thabeet's head and disrupted his game, they were in good shape. UConn had to move the ball outside, and without Dyson they didn't have enough scoring to put the game away. Kemba Walker is a great player, and will be better, but basically the Huskies had been running their offense through Thabeet (for good reason) for so long, they didn't know what to do when they couldn't anymore.

Let's make one thing clear, though. In spite of all of that, this was no Pitt rout. UConn went into the final minutes looking as if they'd pull the thing out in spite of the rough start. The Huskies remain one of the best, if not the best team in the nation, and should be considered a favorite come March even without Dyson.

All last night showed us is that that's true about the Pitt Panthers too.

UConn 63, Syracuse 49

Yeah, nothing cheers a guy up like watching the Cuse get manhandled. Not that it'll make me feel any better Saturday afternoon, while I watch the Hoyas get manhandled BY the Cuse, but for one night it was fun.

After the game, Jim Calhoun called Hasheen Thabeet "the most dominant force in America right now." I assume he meant "in college basketball in America," thus exempting forces such as LeBron James, Barack Obama and American Idol, and I therefore agree with him. When Thabeet is as motivated as he apparently is right now, there's just not another team in the country with anybody who can play him.

Some bad news for the red-hot Huskies today, though, as Jerome Dyson is evidently out for the season with a torn knee ligament. My first reaction is to say they'll just slot the hyper-athletic Kemba Walker in there and not miss a beat, but Walker's been such a vital jolt of energy off the bench, you wonder if that translates into a starting role.

With Walker, A.J. Price, the terrifying Jeff Adrien and so many other talented players around Thabeet, I have to imagine UConn will still be fine, and a candidate for the national title. But they were starting to look as if they might run away and hide from everybody, and now you have to wonder how such a major injury will affect them.

Tonight's only conference game is Louisville at Notre Dame. The Irish have lost seven in a row and are grasping furiously for a ripcord. Can't imagine they find it tonight against T-Will and the Cards.

Back tomorrow with a recap of Louisville, if it's interesting enough, and maybe a preview of Saturday's Syracuse-Georgetown matchup, if I feel masochistic enough.

South Florida 57, Marquette 56? Seriously??

Incredible play by Dominique Jones to win it. Horrendous loss for Marquette. No way can you hang in the Best-Team-In-The-Conference conversation with Connecticut if you're going to go down to Tampa and lose to South Florida. UConn, in case nobody else has noticed, is a rabid steamroller right now. You think Jeff Adrien would tolerate a loss to South Florida at this point in the season?

Look, Marquette's having a great year, and surely you're allowed one bad loss. But who could have seen this coming? With 11:48 left, Jerel McNeal hit a three to tie it at 40-40, and I thought (actually said to my wife, who could care less), "Okay, here they go. This is what they did to Providence. They'll rain threes the rest of the way and win by 15."

But they didn't! They missed all their threes! They attempted seven threes the rest of the way and missed every single one of them. And as a result, they lost. Cracked Sidewalks has a brief, angry breakdown that keeps it as simple as it is -- Marquette lost this one because they couldn't hit their shots, even from the free throw line.

Good for Jones and South Florida, because everybody should get to win a big game every now and then. But for Marquette...yucko.

Saturday slate, as indicated in an earlier post, features the first of two big Villanova-Syracuse games as its highlight. I enjoyed chewing my way through the preview on Villanova by the Numbers.

We'll check in sometime Saturday, our mood of course dependent on the Hoyas' ability to get revenge against Cincinnati.

A week in review -- Did Jessie Sapp really hit two three-pointers in the same game?

Just back from a week in Florida visiting the in-laws. The blog has, sadly, suffered for the trip because the room in which we stayed at the Courtyard Boynton Beach did not have internet access.

It did, however, have cable. And between that and a review of the scores of the past six days, I have a few thoughts:

*The Hoyas won a game! Sure, they lost one too -- at Marquette on Saturday, to extend the losing streak to five games before a lackluster bounce-back against Rutgers on Tuesday night. But we here at RCR prefer to think positive, and it's good that they beat Rutgers. Very good. Still looking shaky -- with four tough games and four "easy" ones left they'll need to pull an upset or two in order to finish with a .500 conference record. But it had been so long since the last win that we're just going to focus on the fact that Georgetown scored more points than Rutgers, enjoy it and (for now) leave it at that.

*Notre Dame did NOT win a game. The Irish lost to Pitt and Cincinnati, have dumped six games in a row and now sit at 3-7 in the conference, in 12th place, and 12-9 overall. Their next game is Saturday at UCLA, a likely loss. Assuming they lose that game, their home game against Louisville and road games at West Virginia and UConn, they'd have to win all of the rest of their remaining games just to finish 17-13 overall and 8-10 in conference. That would mean beating Villanova at home and Providence on the road, neither a sure thing. I sort of called this a month ago, pegging Notre Dame as the "Top Nine" team most likely to slip into the conference's bottom tier, but I had no idea it would be this bad. (And sadly, I also had no idea the Hoyas would join them.) Luke Harangody remains one of the best players in the nation -- probably the best offensive player in the nation -- but the rest of the team is a mess, the shooting is unreliable and the defense just doesn't exist. We could be seeing a complete collapse.

*Marquette hosts Connecticut on Feb. 25. By that time, there's a real chance that Marquette will have a 14-0 conference record and UConn's will be 14-1. Both teams have potential trouble spots between now and then, but the only game in which either might not be favored is Marquette's road game at Villanova. Right now, you get the sense that UConn is the conference's best team, if not the country's. They crushed Louisville, which had been crushing everybody for weeks. Their only loss in conference came in their first game, against Georgetown -- a game after which Jim Calhoun, by all accounts, tore them to shreds in the locker room because he felt they hadn't played as hard or as well as they could. What's happened since (a 10-0 record by the Huskies and a 3-7 record for the Hoyas) bears that out, though Marquette will get its chance to prove its guards are the class of the conference on Feb. 25.

*If the Big East tournament were held today, the first-round matchups would be as follows:
(9) West Virginia vs. (16) DePaul
(10) Georgetown vs. (15) Rutgers
(11) St. John's. vs. (14) South Florida
(12) Notre Dame vs. (13) Seton Hall
with Villanova, Providence, Syracuse and Cincinnati waiting to take on the winners on Day Two. In my opinion, not enough has been written about the format of this year's Big East tournament, and the possibility that one or two NCAA tournament teams could be playing on its first day, needing to win five games in five days to be conference champs. Teams like Georgetown, West Virginia and Notre Dame should be incredibly motivated over the next few weeks to find a way out of that bottom eight and into that middle tier, from which they'd "only" have to win four games in four days to win the tournament (something that's only been done twice). This tournament is always a knock-down, drag-out, but this year's could be the toughest and roughest of all time.

UConn 89, Villanova 83

So the other night, while watching the DePaul-South Florida game (yes, I was the only one watching -- call me with any questions about the game), I learned something about this year's Big East tournament. I'd already known that all 16 teams would be in it, but it hadn't occurred to me how, exactly, they were going to make that work.

Evidently, the top four seeds will all receive two byes, advancing straight to the quarterfinal round, which begins Thursday of that week. So, if you're one of the top four, you'll only have to win three games in three days to win the conference tournament.

The No. 5 through No. 8 seeds will each receive one bye and won't play until Wednesday. So those teams, if they want to win the conference tournament, will have to win four games in four days -- something that's only been done twice, last year by Pitt and a few years back when Gerry McNamara and Syracuse did it.

The No. 9 through 16 teams will begin play Tuesday and will have to win five games in five days to be conference champs. If that sounds freaking impossible, there's a good reason.

Now, why does this matter? Because that means somebody from the top nine will be in that Tuesday group. At least one of these nine teams:

Louisville
Marquette
UConn
Pitt
Syracuse
Georgetown
Notre Dame
West Virginia
Villanova

If you believe (as I do) that any of the nine teams in that list could conceivably win the conference tournament if all else were equal, this is jarring. It means that at least one of the Big East's "Power Nine" will be all but eliminated from contention for the title before the tournament begins.

If Villanova is that team, they will have some regrets.

They'll regret not making one of those tip-in chances in the final seconds of the Louisville game go in the net. And I believe they'll look back on last night's game at UConn and think they could have won that too.

Villanova is a nightmare to play against. They hassle everything. All through the second half, as it kept looking at if Connecticut was about to pull away, the Wildcats got a hand on every pass, a hand in the face of every shooter, a steal off every dribble that wasn't perfect. They created chance after chance after chance...

...and missed them all. I mean, this was hard to watch. They'd get the steal, block or some other kind of turnover, then they'd take it down the other end and miss a layup. Or miss a dunk. Or make the inconceivably bad decision to try and drive the lane and dunk on Hasheem Thabeet, whose large hand ended that quest emphatically.

(Quick note on Thabeet, by the way. This guy should be better, especially on offense. It looks as if all he wants to do is block shots. Now, he's excellent at blocking shots -- a total game-changer on defense. But he's an uninterested rebounder and a sometimes invisible offensive player. Jay Bilas kept saying that nobody else in the country has a comparable player, and he's right. The dude is 7-foot-3. But that doesn't help you score if you don't care about offense.)

Anyway, Villanova was way game. A.J. Price hitting 700 three-pointers in the first half didn't bother them. Jeff Adrien asserting his I'm-stronger-than-you-are-and-will-own-the-second-half act didn't bother them. The only thing that seemed to upset them was when they got the ball within a few feet of the rim. Why would that be so scary?

Nice escape win for UConn, which is rolling, but I call this a big-time missed chance for Villanova -- and one they might regret come March.

*Red-Hot Redbirds Roll Rutgers: Yes, of course I kept an eye on the Louisville-Rutgers game. Yes, I took note that it was tied at 7-7. Yes, I was impressed that Louisville then scored the next 21 points, enabling its mascot to take a 90-minute nap and its coaching staff to start drawing up plays for Sunday's game at Syracuse.

Look, I still think Louisville has shown some weaknesses this season, and that they could be vulnerable. But right now, they are ON FIRE, as good and as locked-in as any team in the conference and super-confident. If this keeps up, and builds on itself, they'll have a real good chance to take that No. 1 seed into Madison Square Garden in early March.