Remember when Notre Dame couldn't lose at home?
Seriously, good back-on-track win for Villanova, which can now smell that No. 4 seed in the Big East tournament. Remember, if Marquette loses to Pitt on Wednesday, Villanova will hold the tiebreaker over Marquette. Which means (if Marquette loses to Pitt on Wednesday), all Villanova has to do now to secure a top-four seed and a two-day bye at the Garden is beat Providence in their regular-season finale Thursday. And if if they don't do that, they can still get the four-seed if Marquette loses to Pitt on Wednesday and also loses to Syracuse this weekend.
All of which has to make Villanova's loss to Georgetown on Saturday even more brutal, because if they'd just won that game, all they'd have to do is beat Providence to lock in that top-four spot.
But c'est la vie. Smart money still says they get it.
And remember, even if Marquette beats Pitt, Villanova can still get into the top four ahead of Pitt, since they beat the Panthers head-to-head and Pitt could easily lose its regular-season finale against UConn. So things are kind of coming up Villanova here at the end -- assuming this win tonight means they're back on track and will take care of Providence on Thursday.
Tonight's Big East schedule is more or less flotsam, with a Georgetown-St. John's game that looks like a preview of the 12-13 game in next Tuesday's first round at the very same venue. Cincinnati could use a win at South Florida if it still harbors any hope of escaping the Tuesday games. And Syracuse hosts Rutgers, which is 1-15 in the conference and horrible.
Showing posts with label Notre Dame. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Notre Dame. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Georgetown 65, South Florida 40
Not entirely sure what to make of it, but the Hoyas certainly needed it. A laugher. A rout. Whatever you want to call it, it's something Georgetown hasn't had in far too long. They knew they were bigger and stronger up front than the outmanned Bulls were, and they exploited that fact, working the ball inside and making sure Greg Monroe was the game's dominant factor.
South Florida's coach believed his team had an off night, and that may be so. But when Georgetown is playing well, running its disciplined offense and unrelenting defense, teams generally do have off nights.
So what's it to be here, fellas? Is it possible that, with eight minutes left in regulation at Syracuse, a light went on and this team started playing with passion and fire and intensity again? Is it possible that they'll actually be a difficult team for Marquette to play on Saturday, for Louisville to play on Monday, and for Villanova to play a week from Saturday?
That would make things fun -- even interesting. Regular readers of this site know we're not about to get our hopes up, but that doesn't mean we won't watch. Marquette is a team that the Hoya team of early January would have beaten. They are loaded on the perimeter, soft inside, and if you can keep them on the perimeter, they've shown that they won't hit all of their jump shots.
Pomeroy has the Hoyas beating Marquette 73-69, a 67 percent certainty of a Georgetown victory. Of course, Pomeroy had the Hoyas 7-1 over their last eight games, and instead they are 2-6. (Just missed on that one, Kenny....)
One more thing. Nikita Mescheriakov is 0-for his last seven three-point attempts since taking over Jessie Sapp's spot in the starting lineup. Now, I understand that Sapp is in the doghouse, and that it apparently has something to do with something he said and shouldn't have said to our beloved coach in the locker room recently. Given that, and the fact that Sapp went about eight weeks without hitting a field goal earlier this year, I can completely see not starting him. But John -- if Mescheriakov can't hit threes...isn't that kind of like playing with four guys?
Just a thought.
Oh. Elsewhere. Right.
We're so over Providence. Yeah, you're reading that right. Up by one at the half, lost by 18. See ya, Friars.
And West Virginia takes care of business against Notre Dame, which puts the Hoyas in a three-way tie for 10th place (hey, we take what we can get), which is intriguing until you remember what the schedule looks like over the next 10 days.
But you never know, Wright? I mean, right? No wait. Maybe I do mean Wright.
Come on, Hoyas. Prove me wrong again. The good way this time.
South Florida's coach believed his team had an off night, and that may be so. But when Georgetown is playing well, running its disciplined offense and unrelenting defense, teams generally do have off nights.
So what's it to be here, fellas? Is it possible that, with eight minutes left in regulation at Syracuse, a light went on and this team started playing with passion and fire and intensity again? Is it possible that they'll actually be a difficult team for Marquette to play on Saturday, for Louisville to play on Monday, and for Villanova to play a week from Saturday?
That would make things fun -- even interesting. Regular readers of this site know we're not about to get our hopes up, but that doesn't mean we won't watch. Marquette is a team that the Hoya team of early January would have beaten. They are loaded on the perimeter, soft inside, and if you can keep them on the perimeter, they've shown that they won't hit all of their jump shots.
Pomeroy has the Hoyas beating Marquette 73-69, a 67 percent certainty of a Georgetown victory. Of course, Pomeroy had the Hoyas 7-1 over their last eight games, and instead they are 2-6. (Just missed on that one, Kenny....)
One more thing. Nikita Mescheriakov is 0-for his last seven three-point attempts since taking over Jessie Sapp's spot in the starting lineup. Now, I understand that Sapp is in the doghouse, and that it apparently has something to do with something he said and shouldn't have said to our beloved coach in the locker room recently. Given that, and the fact that Sapp went about eight weeks without hitting a field goal earlier this year, I can completely see not starting him. But John -- if Mescheriakov can't hit threes...isn't that kind of like playing with four guys?
Just a thought.
Oh. Elsewhere. Right.
We're so over Providence. Yeah, you're reading that right. Up by one at the half, lost by 18. See ya, Friars.
And West Virginia takes care of business against Notre Dame, which puts the Hoyas in a three-way tie for 10th place (hey, we take what we can get), which is intriguing until you remember what the schedule looks like over the next 10 days.
But you never know, Wright? I mean, right? No wait. Maybe I do mean Wright.
Come on, Hoyas. Prove me wrong again. The good way this time.
Friday, February 6, 2009
The Big East "Bubble"
Seton Hall beat St. John's on Thursday night, and I can't think of a thing to say about that except that the guy, Hazell, is an animal and I'm very glad the Pirates have picked up a second and third conference win since breaking the seal against the Hoyas. I'd feel better if the second and third conference wins had come against, say, Pitt and Syracuse (especially Syracuse, come to think of it), but I'll take it.
Cruising around the webisphere, I come across ESPN's "Bubble Watch," which is a conference-by-conference look, more than a month before the Big Dance, at which teams are in, which teams are almost in and which teams have "work to do."
We scroll, as we always do, right to the Big East, where we find four teams listed as "Locks" -- no surprise, UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Marquette, the conference's well defined Top Four.
The site lists Villanova and Syracuse under "should be in," and then lists West Virginia, Georgetown, Cincinnati and Providence as teams with "work left to do."
So that's 10 total Big East teams that ESPN.com thinks have a shot at March Madness if, presumably, they all do the work they have left to do. What jumps out? Well, the fact that Notre Dame isn't one of them.
The Irish are paying the price for a six-game losing streak that stands an awfully good chance of reaching eight with their next two games against UCLA and Louisville. The streak includes no bad losses (the worst is at Cincinnati, which isn't as bad a loss as it looked like it would be a few weeks back), but the fact is that they need to win six of their final eight games to finish 9-9 in conference, and their schedule still includes Louisville, West Virginia, UConn and Villanova. This is why that loss at St. John's was so bad. The difference between a 9-9 conference record and an 8-10 conference record is huge to the selection committee, and if the Irish get hot, that loss could well be the difference.
Here's the rundown on some of the teams that DO show up on the Big East Bubble Watch:
*Villanova: "They are only 2-4 against RPI top-50 teams, and only seven of their 18 victories against Division I teams have come against RPI top-100 opponents." However, the site also points out the Wildcats' victory over Pitt as a big point in their favor and says their remaining schedule (which includes Marquette, West Virginia, Georgetown and two games against Syracuse) offers opportunities to beef up their credentials.
*Syracuse: "three very good nonconference victories (Florida and Kansas on neutral courts and at Memphis). The Orange probably could use one or two victories over the league's top five RPI teams to improve their seeding. They will have a chance to do that the next two weeks, when they play Villanova (twice), at Connecticut and home against Georgetown." Doesn't that last bit make you think that, if either Syracuse or Nova sweeps the other, one of those teams moves a lot closer to the wrong side of the bubble?
*West Virginia: "The Mountaineers bring a couple of decent nonconference wins (road victories at Ole Miss and Ohio State) and a win at Georgetown to the table, but they might need another signature victory to feel safe." They still have road games at Pitt and Cincinnati and home games against Villanova and Louisville, but they could lose all four of those and still finish .500 in the conference. If they win one of them, they're probably getting in.
*Mighty Hoyas: "it might take a complete collapse for the Hoyas not to receive an at-large bid. They have victories over Memphis, Connecticut and Syracuse, and are playing the country's third-toughest schedule." Fair enough, but does anybody else fear a "complete collapse" might be underway? Five straight losses and a shaky home win against Rutgers does not inspire confidence. I'd like to see them pick up one or two more "big" wins (say, home against Marquette or at Villanova, something like that) before I start feeling good. Mainly, though, I just want them to beat Cincinnati tomorrow and look awesome doing it. It's been a real long time since they looked awesome.
*Cincinnati: "Cincinnati has a couple of so-so nonconference victories (UAB and UNLV) and beat Georgetown at home. But the Bearcats probably need to finish better than .500 in Big East play to garner serious consideration." Can they do it? They're 5-5 right now with road games remaining at Georgetown, Pitt, Syracuse and South Florida and home games against St. John's, Louisville, West Virginia and Seton Hall. I say that's three they should win, three they should lose and two toss-ups (at Georgetown and home to West Virginia). So if they can complete the season sweep of the Hoyas tomorrow afternoon, they're set up with a good chance.
*Providence: "they might need a 10-6 finish to secure an at-large bid. They won't bring a single quality nonconference victory to the table...The Friars missed a big chance to make a statement by losing to Villanova 94-91 on Wednesday night." Anybody who's been following this blog (are you out there?) knows we love Providence. The Syracuse win was huge for them, but they've dumped a couple in a row now to UConn and Villanova and they've allowed exactly 94 points in each of their last three games (and 93 in the one before that!) The Friars will have to play over their heads the rest of the way to have a shot. They're 6-4, so they must finish 4-2 to hit that 10-6 mark. That means winning two of four very tough games -- at West Virginia, at Louisville, at Villanova and home against Pitt -- and not slipping up anywhere else.
Marquette travels to South Florida tonight for what should be a shutout, then we get a six-game Saturday slate whose highlight is the first of those Syracuse-Nova matchups. We'll watch that one as long as we can get the ESPN360 working and keep one eye on those Mighty Hoyas...
Cruising around the webisphere, I come across ESPN's "Bubble Watch," which is a conference-by-conference look, more than a month before the Big Dance, at which teams are in, which teams are almost in and which teams have "work to do."
We scroll, as we always do, right to the Big East, where we find four teams listed as "Locks" -- no surprise, UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Marquette, the conference's well defined Top Four.
The site lists Villanova and Syracuse under "should be in," and then lists West Virginia, Georgetown, Cincinnati and Providence as teams with "work left to do."
So that's 10 total Big East teams that ESPN.com thinks have a shot at March Madness if, presumably, they all do the work they have left to do. What jumps out? Well, the fact that Notre Dame isn't one of them.
The Irish are paying the price for a six-game losing streak that stands an awfully good chance of reaching eight with their next two games against UCLA and Louisville. The streak includes no bad losses (the worst is at Cincinnati, which isn't as bad a loss as it looked like it would be a few weeks back), but the fact is that they need to win six of their final eight games to finish 9-9 in conference, and their schedule still includes Louisville, West Virginia, UConn and Villanova. This is why that loss at St. John's was so bad. The difference between a 9-9 conference record and an 8-10 conference record is huge to the selection committee, and if the Irish get hot, that loss could well be the difference.
Here's the rundown on some of the teams that DO show up on the Big East Bubble Watch:
*Villanova: "They are only 2-4 against RPI top-50 teams, and only seven of their 18 victories against Division I teams have come against RPI top-100 opponents." However, the site also points out the Wildcats' victory over Pitt as a big point in their favor and says their remaining schedule (which includes Marquette, West Virginia, Georgetown and two games against Syracuse) offers opportunities to beef up their credentials.
*Syracuse: "three very good nonconference victories (Florida and Kansas on neutral courts and at Memphis). The Orange probably could use one or two victories over the league's top five RPI teams to improve their seeding. They will have a chance to do that the next two weeks, when they play Villanova (twice), at Connecticut and home against Georgetown." Doesn't that last bit make you think that, if either Syracuse or Nova sweeps the other, one of those teams moves a lot closer to the wrong side of the bubble?
*West Virginia: "The Mountaineers bring a couple of decent nonconference wins (road victories at Ole Miss and Ohio State) and a win at Georgetown to the table, but they might need another signature victory to feel safe." They still have road games at Pitt and Cincinnati and home games against Villanova and Louisville, but they could lose all four of those and still finish .500 in the conference. If they win one of them, they're probably getting in.
*Mighty Hoyas: "it might take a complete collapse for the Hoyas not to receive an at-large bid. They have victories over Memphis, Connecticut and Syracuse, and are playing the country's third-toughest schedule." Fair enough, but does anybody else fear a "complete collapse" might be underway? Five straight losses and a shaky home win against Rutgers does not inspire confidence. I'd like to see them pick up one or two more "big" wins (say, home against Marquette or at Villanova, something like that) before I start feeling good. Mainly, though, I just want them to beat Cincinnati tomorrow and look awesome doing it. It's been a real long time since they looked awesome.
*Cincinnati: "Cincinnati has a couple of so-so nonconference victories (UAB and UNLV) and beat Georgetown at home. But the Bearcats probably need to finish better than .500 in Big East play to garner serious consideration." Can they do it? They're 5-5 right now with road games remaining at Georgetown, Pitt, Syracuse and South Florida and home games against St. John's, Louisville, West Virginia and Seton Hall. I say that's three they should win, three they should lose and two toss-ups (at Georgetown and home to West Virginia). So if they can complete the season sweep of the Hoyas tomorrow afternoon, they're set up with a good chance.
*Providence: "they might need a 10-6 finish to secure an at-large bid. They won't bring a single quality nonconference victory to the table...The Friars missed a big chance to make a statement by losing to Villanova 94-91 on Wednesday night." Anybody who's been following this blog (are you out there?) knows we love Providence. The Syracuse win was huge for them, but they've dumped a couple in a row now to UConn and Villanova and they've allowed exactly 94 points in each of their last three games (and 93 in the one before that!) The Friars will have to play over their heads the rest of the way to have a shot. They're 6-4, so they must finish 4-2 to hit that 10-6 mark. That means winning two of four very tough games -- at West Virginia, at Louisville, at Villanova and home against Pitt -- and not slipping up anywhere else.
Marquette travels to South Florida tonight for what should be a shutout, then we get a six-game Saturday slate whose highlight is the first of those Syracuse-Nova matchups. We'll watch that one as long as we can get the ESPN360 working and keep one eye on those Mighty Hoyas...
Thursday, February 5, 2009
A week in review -- Did Jessie Sapp really hit two three-pointers in the same game?
Just back from a week in Florida visiting the in-laws. The blog has, sadly, suffered for the trip because the room in which we stayed at the Courtyard Boynton Beach did not have internet access.
It did, however, have cable. And between that and a review of the scores of the past six days, I have a few thoughts:
*The Hoyas won a game! Sure, they lost one too -- at Marquette on Saturday, to extend the losing streak to five games before a lackluster bounce-back against Rutgers on Tuesday night. But we here at RCR prefer to think positive, and it's good that they beat Rutgers. Very good. Still looking shaky -- with four tough games and four "easy" ones left they'll need to pull an upset or two in order to finish with a .500 conference record. But it had been so long since the last win that we're just going to focus on the fact that Georgetown scored more points than Rutgers, enjoy it and (for now) leave it at that.
*Notre Dame did NOT win a game. The Irish lost to Pitt and Cincinnati, have dumped six games in a row and now sit at 3-7 in the conference, in 12th place, and 12-9 overall. Their next game is Saturday at UCLA, a likely loss. Assuming they lose that game, their home game against Louisville and road games at West Virginia and UConn, they'd have to win all of the rest of their remaining games just to finish 17-13 overall and 8-10 in conference. That would mean beating Villanova at home and Providence on the road, neither a sure thing. I sort of called this a month ago, pegging Notre Dame as the "Top Nine" team most likely to slip into the conference's bottom tier, but I had no idea it would be this bad. (And sadly, I also had no idea the Hoyas would join them.) Luke Harangody remains one of the best players in the nation -- probably the best offensive player in the nation -- but the rest of the team is a mess, the shooting is unreliable and the defense just doesn't exist. We could be seeing a complete collapse.
*Marquette hosts Connecticut on Feb. 25. By that time, there's a real chance that Marquette will have a 14-0 conference record and UConn's will be 14-1. Both teams have potential trouble spots between now and then, but the only game in which either might not be favored is Marquette's road game at Villanova. Right now, you get the sense that UConn is the conference's best team, if not the country's. They crushed Louisville, which had been crushing everybody for weeks. Their only loss in conference came in their first game, against Georgetown -- a game after which Jim Calhoun, by all accounts, tore them to shreds in the locker room because he felt they hadn't played as hard or as well as they could. What's happened since (a 10-0 record by the Huskies and a 3-7 record for the Hoyas) bears that out, though Marquette will get its chance to prove its guards are the class of the conference on Feb. 25.
*If the Big East tournament were held today, the first-round matchups would be as follows:
(9) West Virginia vs. (16) DePaul
(10) Georgetown vs. (15) Rutgers
(11) St. John's. vs. (14) South Florida
(12) Notre Dame vs. (13) Seton Hall
with Villanova, Providence, Syracuse and Cincinnati waiting to take on the winners on Day Two. In my opinion, not enough has been written about the format of this year's Big East tournament, and the possibility that one or two NCAA tournament teams could be playing on its first day, needing to win five games in five days to be conference champs. Teams like Georgetown, West Virginia and Notre Dame should be incredibly motivated over the next few weeks to find a way out of that bottom eight and into that middle tier, from which they'd "only" have to win four games in four days to win the tournament (something that's only been done twice). This tournament is always a knock-down, drag-out, but this year's could be the toughest and roughest of all time.
It did, however, have cable. And between that and a review of the scores of the past six days, I have a few thoughts:
*The Hoyas won a game! Sure, they lost one too -- at Marquette on Saturday, to extend the losing streak to five games before a lackluster bounce-back against Rutgers on Tuesday night. But we here at RCR prefer to think positive, and it's good that they beat Rutgers. Very good. Still looking shaky -- with four tough games and four "easy" ones left they'll need to pull an upset or two in order to finish with a .500 conference record. But it had been so long since the last win that we're just going to focus on the fact that Georgetown scored more points than Rutgers, enjoy it and (for now) leave it at that.
*Notre Dame did NOT win a game. The Irish lost to Pitt and Cincinnati, have dumped six games in a row and now sit at 3-7 in the conference, in 12th place, and 12-9 overall. Their next game is Saturday at UCLA, a likely loss. Assuming they lose that game, their home game against Louisville and road games at West Virginia and UConn, they'd have to win all of the rest of their remaining games just to finish 17-13 overall and 8-10 in conference. That would mean beating Villanova at home and Providence on the road, neither a sure thing. I sort of called this a month ago, pegging Notre Dame as the "Top Nine" team most likely to slip into the conference's bottom tier, but I had no idea it would be this bad. (And sadly, I also had no idea the Hoyas would join them.) Luke Harangody remains one of the best players in the nation -- probably the best offensive player in the nation -- but the rest of the team is a mess, the shooting is unreliable and the defense just doesn't exist. We could be seeing a complete collapse.
*Marquette hosts Connecticut on Feb. 25. By that time, there's a real chance that Marquette will have a 14-0 conference record and UConn's will be 14-1. Both teams have potential trouble spots between now and then, but the only game in which either might not be favored is Marquette's road game at Villanova. Right now, you get the sense that UConn is the conference's best team, if not the country's. They crushed Louisville, which had been crushing everybody for weeks. Their only loss in conference came in their first game, against Georgetown -- a game after which Jim Calhoun, by all accounts, tore them to shreds in the locker room because he felt they hadn't played as hard or as well as they could. What's happened since (a 10-0 record by the Huskies and a 3-7 record for the Hoyas) bears that out, though Marquette will get its chance to prove its guards are the class of the conference on Feb. 25.
*If the Big East tournament were held today, the first-round matchups would be as follows:
(9) West Virginia vs. (16) DePaul
(10) Georgetown vs. (15) Rutgers
(11) St. John's. vs. (14) South Florida
(12) Notre Dame vs. (13) Seton Hall
with Villanova, Providence, Syracuse and Cincinnati waiting to take on the winners on Day Two. In my opinion, not enough has been written about the format of this year's Big East tournament, and the possibility that one or two NCAA tournament teams could be playing on its first day, needing to win five games in five days to be conference champs. Teams like Georgetown, West Virginia and Notre Dame should be incredibly motivated over the next few weeks to find a way out of that bottom eight and into that middle tier, from which they'd "only" have to win four games in four days to win the tournament (something that's only been done twice). This tournament is always a knock-down, drag-out, but this year's could be the toughest and roughest of all time.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Wednesday Wonderings
Six games in the conference tonight, but not too many compelling matchups. Pitt at Villanova looks like the best one, though I am curious to see if Providence can finally pick up a quality win as they host Syracuse. (Regular readers know we here at RCR are always on the lookout for something bad happening to Syracuse.)
So, a couple of random notes on a snowy Wednesday morning here in NJ. (Kids are home from school -- yippee!!)
-Cracked Sidewalks points out two interesting things about Marquette's win at Notre Dame on Monday night. First, it was apparently the eighth anniversary of Al McGuire's death (which doesn't seem that long ago). Second, only four players scored points for Marquette in the game. That's right. They scored 71 points, and the only ones who scored were Jerel McNeal (27), Dominic James (15), Wes Mathews (16) and Lazar Heyward (13).
And they say Georgetown's not deep!
Seriously, though, you can get away with a lack of depth when your best four players are this good. I still think Marquette will lose a game here at some point. Once they stop playing DePaul every other game, maybe. Somebody will be able to out-physical them inside. Their guards will have a cold shooting night. Their schedule has been relatively soft so far, and their final five games at at Georgetown/UConn/at Louisville/at Pitt/Syracuse. So they will be tested. But they are good, and the ND win proves it. Even if it was a four-man effort.
-Our fighting Hoyas do need a win tonight at Cincinnati. Can't go to Marquette on Saturday with a four-game losing streak. Something needs to happen to stem the feel of a free-fall and avoid a situation like the one in which Notre Dame now finds itself. I'm among those who would like to see more of Henry Sims, if for no other reason than to help with the horrendous rebounding problems. (Though I do feel like this could be a case of the most popular player in town always being the backup quarterback.) GU will need some size and toughness inside to combat Mike Williams and Yancey Gates tonight, and if they get pushed around early (and they keep chunking those three-point bricks), I fear a disaster.
-The key for Villanova is always Scotty Reynolds, but I think the key tonight, if they're to have a chance against Pitt, is going to be Dante Cunningham. They'll have to do something to keep the Panthers honest inside, and Cunningham's energetic play last week in the first half was a huge reason the Wildcats were able to hang in the way they did against Connecticut.
That's just off the top of my head in the morning, with the kids screaming their heads off. Maybe I'll check back later.
So, a couple of random notes on a snowy Wednesday morning here in NJ. (Kids are home from school -- yippee!!)
-Cracked Sidewalks points out two interesting things about Marquette's win at Notre Dame on Monday night. First, it was apparently the eighth anniversary of Al McGuire's death (which doesn't seem that long ago). Second, only four players scored points for Marquette in the game. That's right. They scored 71 points, and the only ones who scored were Jerel McNeal (27), Dominic James (15), Wes Mathews (16) and Lazar Heyward (13).
And they say Georgetown's not deep!
Seriously, though, you can get away with a lack of depth when your best four players are this good. I still think Marquette will lose a game here at some point. Once they stop playing DePaul every other game, maybe. Somebody will be able to out-physical them inside. Their guards will have a cold shooting night. Their schedule has been relatively soft so far, and their final five games at at Georgetown/UConn/at Louisville/at Pitt/Syracuse. So they will be tested. But they are good, and the ND win proves it. Even if it was a four-man effort.
-Our fighting Hoyas do need a win tonight at Cincinnati. Can't go to Marquette on Saturday with a four-game losing streak. Something needs to happen to stem the feel of a free-fall and avoid a situation like the one in which Notre Dame now finds itself. I'm among those who would like to see more of Henry Sims, if for no other reason than to help with the horrendous rebounding problems. (Though I do feel like this could be a case of the most popular player in town always being the backup quarterback.) GU will need some size and toughness inside to combat Mike Williams and Yancey Gates tonight, and if they get pushed around early (and they keep chunking those three-point bricks), I fear a disaster.
-The key for Villanova is always Scotty Reynolds, but I think the key tonight, if they're to have a chance against Pitt, is going to be Dante Cunningham. They'll have to do something to keep the Panthers honest inside, and Cunningham's energetic play last week in the first half was a huge reason the Wildcats were able to hang in the way they did against Connecticut.
That's just off the top of my head in the morning, with the kids screaming their heads off. Maybe I'll check back later.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Saturday Preview -- Games Big and Small
While passing the jittery, excited time remaining before the Friday Night Lights premiere for non-DirecTV subscribers, I figured a primer on the six Saturday Big East games might be a cool distraction. I came to this after evaluating several other options:
1. Going for a run. (It's 11 degrees.)
2. Going to the gym. (Later, when it's 3:00 and nobody's there. I promise.)
3. Updating my new baseball blog, nybaseballhack.blogspot.com. (Shameless plug.)
4. Eating lunch. (Though, I could eat while typing, and you'd never know...)
5. Looking for a new job. (There aren't any, which is why this blog exists.)
So here are six thumbnails, each of which includes a brief RCR preview along with a Ken Pomeroy rankings comparison of the teams involved. The games are ranked in order of their importance/slash level of interest to this blog, which admits to a bias:
Georgetown at Duke, 1:30 pm, CBS
Pomeroy Prediction: Duke(1) 71, Georgetown(4) 64
RCR's Take: The Hoyas spent the first half Wednesday night shooting over Syracuse's zone. Saturday, they'll have a much harder time in the face of Duke's perimeter pressure. This will be more like the defense they faced last Saturday against Providence, only...you know...a lot better. For Georgetown to win, they'll need to be able to move the ball inside and out, to and from Greg Monroe, whose inside presence is one of the few advantages the Hoyas have and whose passing ability might be the only way to free up the guards for the outside shots. Also, it wouldn't hurt if a massive flu bug hit the Duke campus tonight and kept the crowd to a minimum...
PREDICTION: I fear a game somewhat like the Tennessee game, where the Hoyas played well, especially on defense, but Tennessee hit everything in sight. I don't foresee the Duke pressure rattling the GU guards, but I think the crowd and the Blue Devils' depth will wear down Georgetown in the second half. Duke 79, Georgetown 68.
Pittsburgh at Louisville, 6 pm, ESPN
Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville(14) 66, Pittsburgh(5) 65
RCR's Take: Those who've been reading know I like Pitt a lot and I'm not sold on Louisville, but the Cardinals showed depth, strength and toughness earlier this week against Notre Dame, and they are the home team. And Pomeroy picks an upset against his own rankings. Is it possible? Sure, if Louisville's zone disrupts Pitt's ability to feed the ball to DeJuan Blair inside. And if Samardo Samuels can rebound enough to limit Blair's second-chance points. And if the Pitt players are distracted, as I always am, by the shockingly recumbent Louisville mascot. (Seriously! He just sits there in that corner all game!!)
PREDICTION: It's Pitt's first real test since taking over No. 1. Louisville is feeling good about some recent escapes. It all points red. But I'm not buying it. For me, even if Samuels and contain Blair, somebody's got to contain Sam Young, and I don't think Earl Clark has it in him to do that for 40 minutes. Pitt 62, Louisville 57.
Notre Dame at Syracuse, Noon, ESPN
Pomeroy Prediction: Syracuse(32) 86, Notre Dame(42) 79
RCR's Take: First, wow. Look how low Pomeroy has these two teams. He was forecasting an easy victory for Georgetown over Syracuse on Wednesday, and why not? The Hoyas were the home team, ranked in his top 5, while the Orange were sitting there on his NCAA tournament bubble. Looking at his Syracuse page, it appears the Orange lose massive points because they turn the ball over too much and don't hit free throws. But that's not likely to matter against a Notre Dame team that plays no defense. Syracuse's best bet is to do what they can against Harangody inside but not get down once he starts hitting those zany fall-away hook shots from six feet. There's nothing you can do about that. Play your zone, drive their guards crazy, get back down the other end of the floor and score those easy buckets Notre Dame is going to be giving you all day.
Prediction: I'd love to pick against Syracuse, because I'd love it if Syracuse lost all of their games. But I can't do it here. Not at home. Not against the softest good team in the conference. Notre Dame doesn't play defense. Won't play defense. Looks for all the world as if it doesn't consider defense an important part of the game. If he's really, really on, Jonny Flynn could have a Jodie Meeks-level offensive performance against Notre Dame. Syracuse gets the taste of the GU game out of its mouth in a hurry. Syracuse 90, Notre Dame 75.
Marquette at Providence, 9 pm, ESPN2
Pomeroy Prediction: Marquette(22) 81, Providence(78) 76
RCR's Take: RCR is staying up to watch this game. I love the Marquette guards but haven't had the chance to watch them play a whole game yet. I love Providence's experience and toughness. There are going to be seniors all over the court in this game, and I think it's a good candidate to be Providence's first "surprise" win of the season. Remember, so far this year, the only Top 9 Big East team to lose to one of the league's bottom-tier teams is Notre Dame, which fell at St. John's a couple of weeks back. If Marquette can shoot the ball and contain Efejuku, they'll come away with a win about which they can feel really good. Because if there's a team in that bottom tier that's going to sneak up and challenge the Top 9, Providence is it.
Prediction: I've been thinking over the past week that Marquette might be my pick to win the conference. They have a chance to show something here, and if they win easily, I'll drive the bandwagon. But I just have this feeling. Late game, far from home, outmanned inside...I see somebody in black and white going off and having a big game. Providence 78, Marquette 77.
South Florida at West Virginia, Noon, ESPN Full Court
Pomeroy Prediction: West Virginia(7) 71, South Florida (105) 53
RCR's Take: Pomeroy has the Mountaineers seventh in the country, but they're 1-2 in conference following losses to UConn and at Marquette. They rebound the ball well, especially on offense. They force turnovers. They have a big man in DeSean Butler and a shooter in Alex Ruoff who are just going to be way too much for an undersized, undermanned Bulls team that's leaving sunny Tampa for a frigid trip north.
Prediction: West Virginia is dying for an easy conference win, and they'll get it against a South Florida team that won't be able to touch them on the boards. West Virginia 79, South Florida 60.
Cincinnati at DePaul, 2 pm, ESPNU
Pomeroy Prediction: Cincinnati(86) 71, DePaul(181) 67
RCR's Take: It's a testament to how good the Big East is that this game would be on ESPNU, a channel you can actually get nationally. Um, let's see...Cincy is a strong offensive rebounding team, thanks mainly to freshman Yancy Gates. He, Mike Williams and Rashad Bishop form a fairly impressive front line that might be able to win some games in a different conference. DePaul can't shoot from anywhere, doesn't rebound especially well, misses free throws...they're a bottom of the Big East barrel team that's facing a rare chance to pick up a conference win. In fact, a look at the remaining schedules indicates that these two teams are going to be sorry to see each other go.
Prediction: Pomeroy's projecting a total of two wins the rest of the way for these two teams combined. And it's not one each. Cincinnati 80, DePaul 65
1. Going for a run. (It's 11 degrees.)
2. Going to the gym. (Later, when it's 3:00 and nobody's there. I promise.)
3. Updating my new baseball blog, nybaseballhack.blogspot.com. (Shameless plug.)
4. Eating lunch. (Though, I could eat while typing, and you'd never know...)
5. Looking for a new job. (There aren't any, which is why this blog exists.)
So here are six thumbnails, each of which includes a brief RCR preview along with a Ken Pomeroy rankings comparison of the teams involved. The games are ranked in order of their importance/slash level of interest to this blog, which admits to a bias:
Georgetown at Duke, 1:30 pm, CBS
Pomeroy Prediction: Duke(1) 71, Georgetown(4) 64
RCR's Take: The Hoyas spent the first half Wednesday night shooting over Syracuse's zone. Saturday, they'll have a much harder time in the face of Duke's perimeter pressure. This will be more like the defense they faced last Saturday against Providence, only...you know...a lot better. For Georgetown to win, they'll need to be able to move the ball inside and out, to and from Greg Monroe, whose inside presence is one of the few advantages the Hoyas have and whose passing ability might be the only way to free up the guards for the outside shots. Also, it wouldn't hurt if a massive flu bug hit the Duke campus tonight and kept the crowd to a minimum...
PREDICTION: I fear a game somewhat like the Tennessee game, where the Hoyas played well, especially on defense, but Tennessee hit everything in sight. I don't foresee the Duke pressure rattling the GU guards, but I think the crowd and the Blue Devils' depth will wear down Georgetown in the second half. Duke 79, Georgetown 68.
Pittsburgh at Louisville, 6 pm, ESPN
Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville(14) 66, Pittsburgh(5) 65
RCR's Take: Those who've been reading know I like Pitt a lot and I'm not sold on Louisville, but the Cardinals showed depth, strength and toughness earlier this week against Notre Dame, and they are the home team. And Pomeroy picks an upset against his own rankings. Is it possible? Sure, if Louisville's zone disrupts Pitt's ability to feed the ball to DeJuan Blair inside. And if Samardo Samuels can rebound enough to limit Blair's second-chance points. And if the Pitt players are distracted, as I always am, by the shockingly recumbent Louisville mascot. (Seriously! He just sits there in that corner all game!!)
PREDICTION: It's Pitt's first real test since taking over No. 1. Louisville is feeling good about some recent escapes. It all points red. But I'm not buying it. For me, even if Samuels and contain Blair, somebody's got to contain Sam Young, and I don't think Earl Clark has it in him to do that for 40 minutes. Pitt 62, Louisville 57.
Notre Dame at Syracuse, Noon, ESPN
Pomeroy Prediction: Syracuse(32) 86, Notre Dame(42) 79
RCR's Take: First, wow. Look how low Pomeroy has these two teams. He was forecasting an easy victory for Georgetown over Syracuse on Wednesday, and why not? The Hoyas were the home team, ranked in his top 5, while the Orange were sitting there on his NCAA tournament bubble. Looking at his Syracuse page, it appears the Orange lose massive points because they turn the ball over too much and don't hit free throws. But that's not likely to matter against a Notre Dame team that plays no defense. Syracuse's best bet is to do what they can against Harangody inside but not get down once he starts hitting those zany fall-away hook shots from six feet. There's nothing you can do about that. Play your zone, drive their guards crazy, get back down the other end of the floor and score those easy buckets Notre Dame is going to be giving you all day.
Prediction: I'd love to pick against Syracuse, because I'd love it if Syracuse lost all of their games. But I can't do it here. Not at home. Not against the softest good team in the conference. Notre Dame doesn't play defense. Won't play defense. Looks for all the world as if it doesn't consider defense an important part of the game. If he's really, really on, Jonny Flynn could have a Jodie Meeks-level offensive performance against Notre Dame. Syracuse gets the taste of the GU game out of its mouth in a hurry. Syracuse 90, Notre Dame 75.
Marquette at Providence, 9 pm, ESPN2
Pomeroy Prediction: Marquette(22) 81, Providence(78) 76
RCR's Take: RCR is staying up to watch this game. I love the Marquette guards but haven't had the chance to watch them play a whole game yet. I love Providence's experience and toughness. There are going to be seniors all over the court in this game, and I think it's a good candidate to be Providence's first "surprise" win of the season. Remember, so far this year, the only Top 9 Big East team to lose to one of the league's bottom-tier teams is Notre Dame, which fell at St. John's a couple of weeks back. If Marquette can shoot the ball and contain Efejuku, they'll come away with a win about which they can feel really good. Because if there's a team in that bottom tier that's going to sneak up and challenge the Top 9, Providence is it.
Prediction: I've been thinking over the past week that Marquette might be my pick to win the conference. They have a chance to show something here, and if they win easily, I'll drive the bandwagon. But I just have this feeling. Late game, far from home, outmanned inside...I see somebody in black and white going off and having a big game. Providence 78, Marquette 77.
South Florida at West Virginia, Noon, ESPN Full Court
Pomeroy Prediction: West Virginia(7) 71, South Florida (105) 53
RCR's Take: Pomeroy has the Mountaineers seventh in the country, but they're 1-2 in conference following losses to UConn and at Marquette. They rebound the ball well, especially on offense. They force turnovers. They have a big man in DeSean Butler and a shooter in Alex Ruoff who are just going to be way too much for an undersized, undermanned Bulls team that's leaving sunny Tampa for a frigid trip north.
Prediction: West Virginia is dying for an easy conference win, and they'll get it against a South Florida team that won't be able to touch them on the boards. West Virginia 79, South Florida 60.
Cincinnati at DePaul, 2 pm, ESPNU
Pomeroy Prediction: Cincinnati(86) 71, DePaul(181) 67
RCR's Take: It's a testament to how good the Big East is that this game would be on ESPNU, a channel you can actually get nationally. Um, let's see...Cincy is a strong offensive rebounding team, thanks mainly to freshman Yancy Gates. He, Mike Williams and Rashad Bishop form a fairly impressive front line that might be able to win some games in a different conference. DePaul can't shoot from anywhere, doesn't rebound especially well, misses free throws...they're a bottom of the Big East barrel team that's facing a rare chance to pick up a conference win. In fact, a look at the remaining schedules indicates that these two teams are going to be sorry to see each other go.
Prediction: Pomeroy's projecting a total of two wins the rest of the way for these two teams combined. And it's not one each. Cincinnati 80, DePaul 65
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Louisville 87, Notre Dame 73 (OT)
It's possible that I've been too hard on Louisville. I'm not sure why that would be. I have nothing against them. I don't hate Rick Pitino. The mascot annoys me a little, the way he sits there in that corner the whole time looking as if he's waiting for somebody to bring him a pina colada and massage his huge yellow feet, but that's a minor thing.
The only thing about Louisville that bugs me is that, when I've seen them this year, they don't seem to be as good as they're supposed to be. And their failings are failings of focus and hustle.
But I don't know. Maybe their weaknesses aren't fatal. They lost three non-conference games they shouldn't have lost, nearly gave away a game to Kentucky and got lucky to beat Villanova. But here they sit, now 3-0 in conference, and there's no denying this win last night was a good one.
It came against a game Notre Dame team that, sure, plays no defense but is tough to outscore and has Luke Harangody, who is (ready?) the best player in the country.
Yes. No offense to Tyler Hansbrough or Blake Griffin, but I truly believe Harangody is the best college basketball player in the country. The more I see him, the more I recall Christian Laettner, except I think Harangody is physically tougher. He beats up up inside in the first half so that he can roam more freely in the second half and score from all over. He gets rebounds. He gets steals. You look for the ball, you're going to find him. And my god can he score. Playing defense on him is like Rocky trying to catch the chicken in Rocky II. You do everything right, force him into a bad shot, and he still scores. He shoots high, six-foot jumpers off the glass over the hands of taller players, and they go in. The ESPN broadcast crew last night said they'd spoken to a scout who ranked Harangody as a better pro prospect than Hansbrough, and it didn't sound ridiculous.
Anyway, Harangody and the Irish ran out of gas, and the reason was the way Louisville maintained its pressure throughout the game. Sure, there were stretches when they looked like the maddening Louisville team of which I've written before -- as if they were annoyed and frustrated at the idea that they had to work hard and try to do something crazy like maybe not let three-point shooter Kyle McAlarney drive the lane for an easy layup. But more than in any game I've seen them play this year, they maintained their defensive intensity. This gave them a tremendous late advantage over Notre Dame, which has none, and which also doesn't have the athletes Louisville has.
Terrence Williams had the big game and the flashy numbers, but watching the game it felt as if Earl Clark was the impact guy. Samardo Samuels will be a force in the paint as he continues to develop. And they have decent depth, with Knowles, McGee and Jennings contributing off the bench. With Louisville, it's not and never has been a question of talent. They have plenty. It's a question of whether they can keep their intensity and focus throughout the game and hold off the kind of tough opponents they're going to face all year in this conference. Last night, they answered that question.
The only thing about Louisville that bugs me is that, when I've seen them this year, they don't seem to be as good as they're supposed to be. And their failings are failings of focus and hustle.
But I don't know. Maybe their weaknesses aren't fatal. They lost three non-conference games they shouldn't have lost, nearly gave away a game to Kentucky and got lucky to beat Villanova. But here they sit, now 3-0 in conference, and there's no denying this win last night was a good one.
It came against a game Notre Dame team that, sure, plays no defense but is tough to outscore and has Luke Harangody, who is (ready?) the best player in the country.
Yes. No offense to Tyler Hansbrough or Blake Griffin, but I truly believe Harangody is the best college basketball player in the country. The more I see him, the more I recall Christian Laettner, except I think Harangody is physically tougher. He beats up up inside in the first half so that he can roam more freely in the second half and score from all over. He gets rebounds. He gets steals. You look for the ball, you're going to find him. And my god can he score. Playing defense on him is like Rocky trying to catch the chicken in Rocky II. You do everything right, force him into a bad shot, and he still scores. He shoots high, six-foot jumpers off the glass over the hands of taller players, and they go in. The ESPN broadcast crew last night said they'd spoken to a scout who ranked Harangody as a better pro prospect than Hansbrough, and it didn't sound ridiculous.
Anyway, Harangody and the Irish ran out of gas, and the reason was the way Louisville maintained its pressure throughout the game. Sure, there were stretches when they looked like the maddening Louisville team of which I've written before -- as if they were annoyed and frustrated at the idea that they had to work hard and try to do something crazy like maybe not let three-point shooter Kyle McAlarney drive the lane for an easy layup. But more than in any game I've seen them play this year, they maintained their defensive intensity. This gave them a tremendous late advantage over Notre Dame, which has none, and which also doesn't have the athletes Louisville has.
Terrence Williams had the big game and the flashy numbers, but watching the game it felt as if Earl Clark was the impact guy. Samardo Samuels will be a force in the paint as he continues to develop. And they have decent depth, with Knowles, McGee and Jennings contributing off the bench. With Louisville, it's not and never has been a question of talent. They have plenty. It's a question of whether they can keep their intensity and focus throughout the game and hold off the kind of tough opponents they're going to face all year in this conference. Last night, they answered that question.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Weekend Recap -- Still not buying Louisville
I mean, right? They tried to give that game to Villanova about 17 different times in the final minute, and Nova just wouldn't take it. Missed free throws, missed put-backs...So many chances to make the Cardinals pay for the loose, lackadaiscial way they play the game, and yet they come away losers, just as Kentucky did a week earlier after coming back when L'ville refused to close them out.
I guess you could say you should give Louisville credit for winning these games when they're obviously not playing as well as they should be playing. But I don't think a team deserves credit when it's not playing as well as it should be playing. I think Louisville should be expected to play better than they are. I think Pitino should have more control over his team and the on-court decisions he makes than he does.
I think Louisville is going to get beaten a few times this year when it shouldn't. I think they should be able to hold or build on leads in the second half, and I don't like the body language of their players when it does start to slip away -- as if they're annoyed and tired instead of angry and determined.
Villanova by the Numbers has a stat breakdown that shows how the Wildcats hung right with the Cardinals in "athletic" stats like steals and blocks, and how they were able to erase Louisville's shooting advantage in the second half.
Maybe I'm making too much of this. It was, after all, a road win in the conference. The conference's top teams are basically doing what they're supposed to do. Pitt, Marquette, Syracuse and UConn all rolled this weekend. Georgetown looked sluggish early but came back behind Greg Monroe to handle Providence.
The conference's "Power Nine" have a combined eight losses. Of those, only Notre Dame's loss at St. John's qualifies as a bad loss.
Villanova's losses are home to Louisville and at Marquette. Georgetown's are home to Pitt and at Notre Dame. West Virginia's are home to UConn and at Marquette. UConn lost at home to Georgetown.
So far, it's been about taking care of business, which in the end is what Louisville did, no matter how shaky they looked at the end.
Right now, the best team in the conference is Pitt, but I sure wish they played Marquette before March 4, because I'm starting to wonder if the best team in the conference might be Marquette, and I'd like to know.
(And yes, I know it could be Syracuse, but we here at RCR are choosing not to acknowledge that horrifying possibility until we absolutely have to -- like, February 15, earliest.)
Tonight is Notre Dame at Louisville. If I were a betting man I'd bet the over, because neither one of these teams likes playing defense very much. I say Harangody takes down the Cardinals on the road with some help from the perimeter, where the Irish should outwit, out-hustle and out-shoot the home team. Louisville should be able to out-athlete them, but to do that they'll have to maintain their focus for 40 full minutes. And from what I've seen this year, they don't.
I guess you could say you should give Louisville credit for winning these games when they're obviously not playing as well as they should be playing. But I don't think a team deserves credit when it's not playing as well as it should be playing. I think Louisville should be expected to play better than they are. I think Pitino should have more control over his team and the on-court decisions he makes than he does.
I think Louisville is going to get beaten a few times this year when it shouldn't. I think they should be able to hold or build on leads in the second half, and I don't like the body language of their players when it does start to slip away -- as if they're annoyed and tired instead of angry and determined.
Villanova by the Numbers has a stat breakdown that shows how the Wildcats hung right with the Cardinals in "athletic" stats like steals and blocks, and how they were able to erase Louisville's shooting advantage in the second half.
Maybe I'm making too much of this. It was, after all, a road win in the conference. The conference's top teams are basically doing what they're supposed to do. Pitt, Marquette, Syracuse and UConn all rolled this weekend. Georgetown looked sluggish early but came back behind Greg Monroe to handle Providence.
The conference's "Power Nine" have a combined eight losses. Of those, only Notre Dame's loss at St. John's qualifies as a bad loss.
Villanova's losses are home to Louisville and at Marquette. Georgetown's are home to Pitt and at Notre Dame. West Virginia's are home to UConn and at Marquette. UConn lost at home to Georgetown.
So far, it's been about taking care of business, which in the end is what Louisville did, no matter how shaky they looked at the end.
Right now, the best team in the conference is Pitt, but I sure wish they played Marquette before March 4, because I'm starting to wonder if the best team in the conference might be Marquette, and I'd like to know.
(And yes, I know it could be Syracuse, but we here at RCR are choosing not to acknowledge that horrifying possibility until we absolutely have to -- like, February 15, earliest.)
Tonight is Notre Dame at Louisville. If I were a betting man I'd bet the over, because neither one of these teams likes playing defense very much. I say Harangody takes down the Cardinals on the road with some help from the perimeter, where the Irish should outwit, out-hustle and out-shoot the home team. Louisville should be able to out-athlete them, but to do that they'll have to maintain their focus for 40 full minutes. And from what I've seen this year, they don't.
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